1901~2022年长江流域降水年内分配时空演变规律

    Evolution characteristics of the interannual and intra-annual precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin from 1901 to 2022

    • 摘要: 为评估长时间降水序列在时空维度的变化态势及其对旱涝灾害的影响,本文采用降水集中指数(PCI)和降水异常指数(RAI)等分析长江流域1901~2022年间降水年内分配的时空演变以及旱涝变化特征。结果表明:(1)1901~2022年,长江流域多年平均PCI 介于11~26之间,表明降水年内分配处于中度集中到异常集中水平;空间上,PCI 值呈现出西北高、东南低的分布格局。(2)在整个研究时段内,PCI的年际变化整体呈增大趋势(0.029/10a),表明降水年内集中度增强;不同时段内(1901~1960和1961~2022年)PCI值年际变化趋势存在明显差异,这种差异反映出降水变化在时间维度上的复杂性。(3)由RAI分析表明,1901~2022年长江流域整体呈现湿润化趋势(0.021/10a);但在不同时间段和不同区域差异显著,部分地区经历了从干旱到湿润的转变,而部分地区则由湿润逐渐转向干旱;这种干湿状态的转变体现了流域气候的多样性和动态性。(4)PCI和SPCI的突变分析表明,在不同研究时段内PCI与SPCI发生突变的时间不一致,但在1950s和1990s前后,二者均发生了突变。1901~2022年长江流域PCI经历了3次突变(1953、1988和2002年);而春、秋和冬季发生突变的时间较早(1931、1920和1937年),春、夏和冬季则在1953和1989年左右再次发生突变。PCI及RAI的变化揭示了长江流域降水模式的转变,其时空演变特征能为旱涝灾害预测提供科学依据,有助于理解区域气候对全球变化的响应机制。

       

      Abstract: To evaluate the long-term spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation and their influence on drought-flood disasters, this study employs the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the rainfall anomaly index (RAI) to analyze the intra-annual distribution and drought-flood characteristics in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) from 1901 to 2022. The key findings are as follows: (1) During 1901-2022, the multi-year average PCI in the YRB ranged between 11 and 26, indicating that the intra-annual distribution of precipitation was moderately to highly concentrated. Spatially, PCI exhibited a northwest-high, southeast-low pattern, reflecting stronger seasonal precipitation variability in the northwestern regions. (2) Over the entire study period, the inter-annual change rate of the PCI in the study area was 0.029/10a, suggesting enhanced precipitation concentration. However, distinct differences were observed between sub-periods (1901-1960 and 1961-2022), highlighting the temporal complexity of precipitation changes. (3) RAI analysis revealed a general wetting trend (0.021/decade) across the basin. However, significant spatiotemporal variations existed—some regions transitioned from dry to wet conditions, while others shifted toward increased aridity, demonstrating the climatic diversity and dynamism of the YRB. (4) The mutation analysis of PCI and SPCI reveals asynchronous abrupt changes across different study periods, though both indices exhibited significant mutations around the 1950s and 1990s. Specifically, three major PCI mutations were identified in the YRB during 1901-2022 (1953, 1988, and 2002). Seasonal analysis shows earlier SPCI mutations in spring, autumn and winter (1931, 1920, and 1937 respectively), followed by secondary mutations in spring, summer and winter around 1953 and 1989. These spatiotemporal variations in PCI and RAI demonstrate fundamental shifts in precipitation patterns across the basin. The findings provide a scientific basis for drought-flood disaster forecasting and contribute to understanding regional climate response mechanisms under global climate change.

       

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