澜沧江流域干燥度时空演变纬度特征

    Latitudinal characteristics of spatiotemporal evolution of aridity in lancang river basin

    • 摘要: 在全球气候变化背景下,不同纬度带的干燥度响应差异显著,量化干燥度与纬度带的依赖关系对差异化水资源管理具有重要意义。中国澜沧江流域跨越13个纬度带,海拔梯度明显,深入分析干燥度长期变化规律与纬度的关系对理解流域水文响应机制至关重要。本文采用联合国环境规划署(UNEP)干燥度指数定义,基于公开的高分辨率数据集,将中国澜沧江流域按0.5°N划分为26个区域,分析了1940-2022年际和季节尺度干燥度指数的时空演变特征,量化了干燥度指数变化趋势及其与纬度的关系。结果表明:(1)春季干燥度指数显著上升(斜率为0.001677,Z=2.38),主导流域整体呈湿润化趋势;(2)干燥度指数与纬度呈显著的空间和季节差异:南部地区(24.75°N以南)呈负相关,北部地区(30.5°N以北)呈正相关,中部地区存在明显的季节转换和以27.25°N为界的空间分异特征;(3)干燥度指数以27.25°N以北地区的斜率显著高于南部地区(P<0.001)。研究揭示了澜沧江流域干燥度变化的纬度格局,可为制定气候变化背景下的适应性水资源配置策略提供指导和帮助。

       

      Abstract: Under global climate change, aridity responses differ markedly across latitudinal zones, and quantifying the dependence of aridity on latitude is crucial for differentiated water-resources management. The Lancang River Basin in China spans approximately 13° of latitude and exhibits pronounced elevation gradients, providing an ideal setting for examining how long-term aridity variations respond to latitude. Using the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) aridity index and publicly available high-resolution gridded datasets, the basin was divided into 26 subregions at 0.5°N intervals. The spatiotemporal evolution of the aridity index at interannual and seasonal scales during 1940–2022 was analyzed, and trends in the aridity index as well as their relationships with latitude were quantified. The results show that: (1) the spring aridity index increased significantly (trend slope = 0.001677, Z = 2.38), driving an overall humidification trend across the basin; (2) the relationship between aridity and latitude exhibits pronounced spatial and seasonal heterogeneity: negative correlations occur in the southern basin (south of 24.75°N), positive correlations dominate the northern basin (north of 30.5°N), and the central basin is characterized by distinct seasonal transitions and a clear spatial discontinuity around 27.25°N; (3) the trend slope in the aridity index north of 27.25°N is significantly higher than that in the southern basin (p < 0.001). These findings reveal the latitudinal pattern of aridity-index changes in the Lancang River Basin and provide a scientific basis for formulating adaptive water-resources allocation strategies under climate-change conditions.

       

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