武汉市重要湖泊水质时空演变特征及污染源解析

    Water quality spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and pollution source analysis of important lakes in Wuhan, China

    • 摘要: 为探究武汉市重要湖泊水质时空演变特征,揭示关键驱动因子,解析污染来源,采用主成分分析、Spearman秩相关系数和APCS-MLR模型等方法对8个湖泊进行研究。结果表明:2013~2023年8个湖泊水质以GB 3838—2002中Ⅳ类为主,其次是Ⅲ类,水质主控因子为高锰酸盐指数、总磷、总氮和溶解氧。从年度变化来看,2019年以前,各主控因子浓度呈明显的逐年上升趋势;2019年以后,除总磷外,基本趋于平稳甚至偶有下降。从年内变化来看,汛期水质明显劣于非汛期。从空间分布来看,历史和现状分布特征略有差异,整体呈现长江以南湖泊水质略优于长江以北。污染源解析表明湖泊内源和城乡面源为主要污染源,其对主控因子平均贡献率接近80%。因此,应重点加强汛期内源和城乡面源污染防控。

       

      Abstract: To investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of water quality in important lakes in Wuhan, identify critical driving factors, and trace pollution sources, this study employed principal component analysis (PCA), Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients, and the APCS-MLR model to analyze eight lakes. The findings reveal that from 2013 to 2023, water quality in these lakes was predominantly classified as Class IV (GB 3838–2002 standard), followed by Class III. The dominant controlling factors were permanganate index, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and dissolved oxygen. Analysis of interannual variations reveals a marked year-on-year upward trend in concentrations of all dominant controlling factors prior to 2019, while levels post-2019 have generally plateaued with occasional declines observed across all parameters except total phosphorus. Regarding intra-annual fluctuations, water quality during flood seasons demonstrates significantly poorer conditions compared to non-flood periods. Spatially, while historical and current distributions shared minor variations, lakes south of the Yangtze River generally maintained marginally better water quality than those north of the river. Pollution source apportionment reveals that intrinsic lake pollution sources and urban/rural non-point sources constitute the predominant contributors, jointly accounting for an average of nearly 80% of the dominant controlling factors. Consequently, prioritized efforts should be directed toward strengthening pollution prevention and control measures targeting intrinsic lake sources and non-point sources during flood seasons.

       

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