基于动力学参数的泥石流堆积距离预测模型

    Prediction model for debris flow runout distance based on dynamic parameters

    • 摘要: 目的传统预测泥石流堆积距离的方法主要通过静力学分析建立经验公式,此方法难以解释具有相同体积和初始高程的泥石流产生不同堆积距离的现象,忽略了动力学参数对堆积距离的影响。方法为此,本研究开展水槽实验,在固定的初始高程和水槽坡度的情况下,通过控制变量法研究固相体积分数,颗粒粒径以及体积对泥石流流速、流深的影响,从而进一步分析流速、流深对堆积距离的影响。结果并得到结论(1)流速与固相体积分数相关系数为-0.68,与颗粒粒径的相关性系数为-0.23。(2)流深与固相体积分数相关系数为0.61,与颗粒粒径的相关性系数为0.31。(3)以无量纲数为纽带,通过机器学习的方法建立了基于流速和流深的泥石流堆积距离预测模型。结论研究结果明确了流速与流深对堆积距离的影响,实现了利用泥石流动力学参数预测堆积距离。有助于更准确的计算泥石流堆积距离。为泥石流堆积扇上合理布置减灾方案提供科学支撑。

       

      Abstract: Traditional methods for predicting debris flow runout distances mainly employ static analysis to establish empirical formulas, which cannot explain why debris flows with identical volumes and initial elevations exhibit different runout distances due to their neglect of dynamic parameters. This study conducted flume experiments under controlled initial elevation and channel slope conditions. Using the control variable method, we systematically investigated the effects of volumetric solid fraction, particle size, and flow volume on debris flow velocity and depth, and further analyzed their influence on runout distance. The results show that: (1) flow velocity exhibits correlation coefficients of -0.68 with solid volume fraction and -0.23 with particle size; (2) flow depth demonstrates correlation coefficients of 0.61 with solid volume fraction and 0.31 with particle size; (3) a machine learning-based prediction model for runout distance was established using dimensionless numbers to incorporate velocity and depth parameters. The findings quantitatively clarify the influence of dynamic parameters on runout distance and provide a scientific basis for more accurate runout distance prediction and optimal mitigation planning on debris flow fans.

       

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