长江经济带人水系统耦合协调评价及障碍因子识别

    Evaluation of coupling coordination and identification of obstacle factors in human-water system of Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2005 to 2020

    • 摘要: 人与自然和谐共生是中国式现代化的重要特征,长江经济带作为我国经济社会发展的重要战略区域,其人水系统的协调发展对于生态文明建设、区域高质量发展和中国式现代化建设均具有重要意义。紧扣“人水和谐”理念,围绕“人-水-地-产-城”系统框架,构建了长江经济带人水系统耦合协调评价体系,运用耦合协调度模型综合分析了2005-2020年长江经济带人水系统耦合协调水平的时空分异特征,并识别了主要障碍因子。研究结果表明:2005-2020年,长江经济带人系统的综合水平稳步提升,水系统的综合水平虽呈上升趋势,但2010-2015年提升较慢。人水系统的耦合协调水平不断改善,从轻度失调提升为濒临失调,在静态空间格局上呈两端高中间低、省会城市高于周边城市的特征,在动态空间演变上呈普遍增长与区域差异显著的特征。人均水资源量、生态环境用水占比、人均地方财政一般预算内收入和建成区面积被识别为阻碍长江经济带人水系统耦合协调发展的主要障碍因子。研究结果揭示了长江经济带人水系统耦合协调的时空演变和主要障碍因子,为长江经济带高质量发展及生态文明建设提供了决策参考。

       

      Abstract: Harmonious coexistence between humans and nature is a defining feature of Chinese modernization. As a critical strategic region for China’s socio-economic development, the Yangtze River Economic Belt’s human-water system coordination is vital for ecological civilization, high-quality development, and modernization. This study developed a “human-water-land-production-urban” coupling coordination evaluation system, analyzing spatiotemporal patterns and obstacles using the coupling coordination degree model from 2005 to 2020. Results revealed: the human system’s comprehensive level improved steadily, while the water system’s growth slowed during 2010-2015; coupling coordination advanced from mild imbalance to near imbalance, exhibiting a static “high ends, low middle” spatial pattern with provincial capitals leading neighboring cities, and dynamic evolution combining widespread growth with regional disparities. The primary obstacles identified were per capita water resources, the ecological water use ratio, per capita general public budget revenue, and built-up area. The findings offered critical insights for optimizing regional sustainable development.

       

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