金沙江下游至三峡水库以上区域降雨演变规律分析

    Analysis of precipitation evolution in critical region from lower Jinsha River to upper Three Gorges Basin

    • 摘要: 为揭示金沙江下游至三峡以上关键区域降雨的年代际变化规律及暴雨时空演变特征,为长江上游水资源管理及三峡水库优化调度提供科学依据。通过回归分析、Mann-Kendall检验、功率谱分析以及合成分析等方法,重点针对雅砻江流域、金沙江下游及长江上游干流三大区域,系统评估了全年、主汛期、蓄水期和关键消落期的降水演变规律。研究结果表明:雅砻江流域全年及消落期降水量呈显著增加趋势,而金沙江下游和长江上游干流所有时段均表现为下降趋势;在周期特征方面,雅砻江主汛期存在5年周期、蓄水期存在13年周期,金沙江下游蓄水期呈现3年周期,长江上游干流主汛期和消落期则存在3年周期;通过对暴雨样本合成分析进一步揭示,长江上游干流暴雨通常在前一日始于北部嘉岷流域,东移南压至干流增强为大雨,次日继续东移减弱为三峡区间中雨后移出研究区。本研究系统研究了雅砻江流域、金沙江下游及长江上游干流三大区域降水时空规律,揭示了其降水趋势突变与周期特征的差异性以及长江上游干流暴雨的空间移动规律,为梯级水库防洪抗旱协同调度及气候变化适应提供关键支撑。

       

      Abstract: This study systematically analyzes the precipitation variations of the Yalong River Basin (YRB), lower Jinsha River (LJR), and upper Yangtze mainstream (UYM). Using methods including regression analysis, Mann-Kendall tests, power spectrum analysis, and composite analysis, we focusing on the annual period, main flood season, reservoir impoundment period, and key drawdown period four temporal scales. The results indicate a significant increase in annual and drawdown-period precipitation in the YRB. In contrast, the LJR and UYM exhibited decreasing trends across all temporal scales. Periodicity analysis revealed a 5-year cycle during the flood season and a 13-year cycle during the impoundment period in the YRB. A 3-year cycle was identified during the impoundment period in the LJR, while the UYM showed 3-year cycles in both the flood season and drawdown periods. Composite analysis of rainstorm events revealed a typical pattern that precipitation generally began as moderate rain one day earlier in the northwestern Jialing River and Minjiang River Basin, then intensified and extended eastward and southward toward the upper mainstream as heavy rain, and weakened back to moderate rain in the Three Gorges area and finally exiting the region.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回