基于可解释机器学习的水电检修影响因素分析方法

    Analysis method of influencing factors of water and electricity maintenance based on interpretable machine learning

    • 摘要: 水电机组检修空间严重受制于发输用相关的众多复杂因素,如何量化这些因素对检修安排的影响是提升调度计划合理性的关键。为此,提出基于可解释机器学习的水电检修影响因素分析方法,以长系列梯级水电检修空间为基础提炼时空变化特征,采用随机森林算法建立来水、调峰、节假日、生态调度、电量置换、线路检修、保供电等多核心影响因素与检修空间的非线性关系模型,利用合作博弈理论建立了梯级水电检修影响因素分析方法,以量化不同因素对水电检修的交互影响,确定影响各水电站检修空间的主导因素。结果表明:1)随机森林模型拟合多因素与检修空间之间关系的效果最佳,R2为0.94,MSLE为44.72,SMAPE为0.02;2)来水、调峰和节假日是影响梯级水电检修空间的关键因素,影响权重分别为52.89%、20.95%以及10.86%;3)梯级电站内部不同电站的检修影响因素会根据电站承担任务不同而存在较大的差异。本文方法有助于提升巨型梯级水电站发电检修安排的合理性和精细化水平。

       

      Abstract: The maintenance space of hydropower units is highly restricted by numerous complex factors related to generation, transmission and utilization. How to quantify the influence of these factors on maintenance arrangements constitutes the key to enhancing the rationality of dispatching plans. To this end, a method for analyzing the influencing factors of hydropower maintenance based on interpretable machine learning is proposed. With the long series of maintenance space of cascade hydropower stations as the basis, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics are refined. The random forest algorithm is employed to establish a nonlinear relationship model between multiple core influencing factors such as water inflow, peak regulation, holidays, ecological dispatch, power exchange, line maintenance, and power supply guarantee and the maintenance space. The cooperative game theory is adopted to establish the analysis method of the influencing factors of cascade hydropower maintenance, quantifying the interactive influence of different factors on hydropower maintenance and determining the dominant factors affecting the maintenance space of each hydropower station. The results indicate that: 1) The random forest model achieves the best fit between multiple influencing factors and maintenance space, with an R2 of 0.94, a Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (MSLE) of 44.72, and a Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) of 0.02; 2) Water inflow, peak regulation, and holidays are the most critical factors affecting maintenance space, with relative importance weights of 52.89%, 20.95%, and 10.86%, respectively; 3) The influencing factors of maintenance for different hydropower stations within a cascade vary significantly depending on the tasks they undertake. The method proposed in this paper is conducive to improving the rationality and refinement level of the power generation and maintenance arrangements for large-scale cascade hydropower stations.

       

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