重大水利水电工程征地移民管理复杂性演化分析

    Evolutionary analysis for complexity of land acquisition and resettlement management of mega water conservancy and hydropower projects

    • 摘要: 重大水利水电工程征地移民管理是一项关系工程建设推进、地区社会稳定与经济发展的系统工作,涌现出复杂性特征。然而,现有研究尚未系统探讨重大水利水电工程的征地移民管理复杂性,缺乏对复杂性应对策略的关注。结合海南省重大水利水电工程的征地移民管理工作经验,该研究采用扎根理论构建法识别了重大水利水电工程征地移民管理的内容复杂性、组织工作复杂性与过程复杂性三个复杂性维度8个影响因素,然后通过构建模糊认知图(FCM)模型进行演化分析。研究表明这些影响因素均对征地移民管理复杂性有重要影响,其中利益诉求多样化(X5)、多元目标的动态平衡(X8)和参与主体多元性(X4)的影响作用最为显著。结合FCM预测分析、诊断分析和敏感性分析的结果,提出建立有效沟通机制、多维诉求采集机制、差异化协商机制、分级预警机制等应对策略。研究成果有助于加深对重大水利水电工程项目征地移民管理复杂性的认识,也为征地移民管理的实践提供建议。

       

      Abstract: Land acquisition and resettlement management of mega water conservancy and hydropower projects is a systematic work related to the promotion of projects construction, regional social stability and economic development, emerging complexity characteristics. However, existing studies have not yet systematically explored the management complexity of land acquisition and migration for mega water conservancy and hydropower projects, and there is a lack of attention to complexity coping strategies. Combined with the management experience of mega water conservancy and hydropower projects in Hainan province, this study identifies eight influencing factors for the object complexity, organizational complexity and process complexity for management of mega water conservancy and hydropower projects based on the grounded theory. Then, through the construction of a Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) model for evolutionary analysis, it is found that these influencing factors have a significant impact on the complexity of land acquisition and resettlement management. Among them, the effects of diversified interest demands (X5), dynamic balance of multiple objectives (X8), and the diversity of participants (X4) are the most significant. Combined with the results of FCM predictive analysis, diagnostic analysis, and sensitivity analysis , this study proposes coping strategies by establishing effective communication mechanisms, multidimensional demand collection mechanisms, differentiated negotiation mechanisms, and graded early warning mechanisms. The results help to deepen the understanding of the complexity management of land acquisition and migration in mega water conservancy and hydropower projects, and provide suggestions for the practices of land acquisition and resettlement management.

       

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