基于深度学习的径流丰枯急转特征识别与模拟方法

    Deep Learning-Based Method for Identifying and Simulating Abrupt Wet-Dry Transition Characteristics in Three Gorges Reservoir Runoff

    • 摘要: 在全球气候变化加剧导致极端水文事件频发的背景下,针对现有方法在面对极端来水事件时存在的识别效率低下与模拟精度不足等问题,本研究提出一种基于深度学习的径流序列丰枯急转特性识别与模拟方法,旨在突破传统方法的技术瓶颈。通过构建特征提取-场景识别-情景生成的耦合框架,该方法能够精准识别丰枯急转事件,并基于改进生成对抗网络实现小样本条件下的极端来水情景模拟。在三峡水库的实例研究中,该方法展现出显著的技术优势:极端来水事件的识别准确率提升至98.2%,同时成功捕捉历史径流过程的丰枯急转规律,可生成符合真实统计分布特性的极端径流序列,有效扩展极端来水场景库。研究成果可为水库防洪调度与抗旱应急决策提供可靠的数据支持,显著提升流域水安全管理的预见性与可靠性。

       

      Abstract: Against the backdrop of intensifying global climate change leading to frequent extreme hydrological events, this study proposes a deep learning-based method for identifying and simulating abrupt wet-dry transition characteristics in runoff sequences. The innovative approach addresses critical limitations in existing methodologies, including low identification efficiency and insufficient simulation accuracy when confronting extreme inflow events, aiming to break through the technical constraints of conventional hydrological analysis methods. By establishing a coupled framework integrating feature extraction, scenario recognition and scenario generation, this method not only achieves precise identification of rapid transitions, but also enables extreme inflow scenario simulation under small-sample conditions through an enhanced Generative Adversarial Network (GAN). In the case study of Three Gorges Reservoir, this method demonstrates significant technical superiority: the identification accuracy of extreme inflow events has been increased to 98.2%, while successfully capturing historical rapid transition patterns between high and low flow periods. The framework proves capable of generating statistically authentic extreme runoff sequences that effectively expand the extreme inflow scenario library. These research outcomes provide reliable data support for reservoir flood control operations and drought emergency decision-making, substantially enhancing the predictability and reliability of watershed water security management.

       

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