基于SPEI指数的淮河流域涝灾时空演变规律研究

    Study on the spatial and temporal variation characteristic of waterlogging based on SPEI

    • 摘要: 涝灾对淮河流域农业生产带来严重的影响,揭示淮河流域涝害的时空演变规律对抗灾减灾、保证农业生产安全至关重要。选取淮河流域30个气象站点的逐日降水(P)、逐日气温(T)、日照时数(SD)等数据,计算1965-2016年的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),从强度、频率、面积等方面对淮河流域涝灾进行识别并对其时空演变规律展开研究。研究结果表明:淮河流域年尺度SPEI指数在研究年限内呈上升趋势,春、夏、秋三季SPEI指数均呈上升趋势,冬季SPEI指数呈现下降趋势。年尺度涝灾强度最高为21.32,主要发生轻度、中度涝灾,各程度受灾面积呈不显著增加趋势。季节方面,春、夏、秋、冬涝灾强度最高分别为17.64、51.72、24.53、7.14,春、秋、冬三季主要以轻度涝灾为主,发生频率最高可达到30.76%、21.15%、19.22%。夏季重度及以上涝灾发生频率最高,为40.37%。受灾面积除冬季外其均呈增长趋势。研究结果可为淮河流域抗灾减灾、涝灾风险防治提供一定的科学依据。

       

      Abstract: Waterlogging significantly impacts agricultural production in the Huai River Basin. Revealing the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of waterlogging is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as ensuring the safety of agricultural production. Meteorological data, including the daily precipitation (P), daily temperature (T), sunshine hours (SD) from 30 meteorological stations were selected to calculate the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from 1965 to 2016. The SPEI was employed to identify the intensity, frequency and area of waterlogging. Based on this, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of waterlogging were analyzed. The results indicated that the annual SPEI in the Huai River Basin exhibited an increasing trend over the study period, with an increasing trend during spring, summer and autumn, whereas the SPEI in winter exhibited a declining trend. The annual waterlogging intensity reached a maximum of 21.32, primarily consisting of mild and moderate waterlogging. The affected area for each severity level showed a nonsignificant increasing trend. Seasonally, the highest waterlogging intensities were 17.64 in Spring, 51.72 in summer, 24.53 in autumn and 7.14 in winter. In spring, autumn, and winter, mild waterlogging events were predominant, with frequencies reaching 30.76%, 21.15% and 19.22%, respectively. The frequency of severe and above waterlogging was highest in summer, reaching 40.37%. The areas that were affected by waterlogging showed an increasing trend in all seasons except winter. These findings provide a certain scientific basis for disaster resistance and mitigation, as well as waterlogging risk prevention and control in the Huai River Basin.

       

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