平潭及闽江口水资源配置工程沿线径流演变规律

    Analysis of Runoff Distribution Characteristics and Evolution Patterns of Pingtan and Minjiang River Estuary Water Resource Allocation

    • 摘要: 平潭及闽江口水资源调配(“一闸三线”)工程沿程水源的径流演变规律分析,对于优化福建省水资源空间均衡配置具有重大意义。本文基于工程沿线五大水源(永泰站、竹岐站等)近60余年的长系列径流资料,综合运用M-K趋势检验、Pettitt突变检测、小波分析、集中度(CD)和集中期(CP)等方法系统揭示了水源区径流的年际和年内演变规律,并基于Copula函数分析水源组合间的丰枯遭遇特性。研究表明:在年际变化方面,永泰站全年及汛期径流呈显著下降趋势并在2000年发生显著突变,竹岐站非汛期径流显著增加且径流突变点为1981年;周期分析表明各水源年径流与汛期径流存在8~18年的主周期,非汛期为5~13年;在年内分配方面,各水源年内径流集中于5-9月,集中度(CD)在0.4~0.53,分配较不均匀,其中永泰站和竹岐站的径流集中程度可能降低,未来径流集中时间有推迟趋势;在丰枯遭遇方面,各水源径流间有较好的丰枯补偿规律,利于开展多水源联合调度,丰枯同步概率为0.47~0.65,丰枯异步概率为0.35~0.53。本研究构建的多尺度径流时空变化解析框架,可为跨流域调水工程的多水源协同调度策略制定提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: The analysis of runoff distribution characteristics and evolution patterns of the Pingtan and Minjiang River Estuary Water Resource Allocation (‘One Gate- Three Lines’) Project holds significant importance for optimizing the spatial equilibrium allocation of water resources in Fujian province. Based on long-term runoff data series spanning over six decades from five major water sources along the project, including representative stations such as Yongtai Station and Zhuqi Station, this study employs Mann-Kendall rank correlation method, Pettitt change-point detection, wavelet analysis, concentration degree (CD) and concentration period (CP) to systematically characterize interannual and intra-annual allocation patterns in water source areas. Besides, using Copula function to analyze the wetness-dryness encounter characteristics between water sources. The results show that: In terms of interannual variations, the runoff at Yongtai Station exhibited a significant decreasing trend throughout an entire year and during flood season, undergoing a significant abrupt change in 2000; whereas the runoff at Zhuqi Station during non-flood season showed a significant increasing trend, with its abrupt change point identified in 1981. Wavelet analysis revealed dominant periodicities of 8~18 years for both annual and flood-season runoff across all water sources, while non-flood-season runoff exhibited primary cycles spanning 5~13 years. Regarding intra-annual distribution, runoffs at stations are concentrated during May to September, with concentration degree (CD) values ranging from 0.40 to 0.53, indicating relatively uneven distribution. Notably, runoff concentration may decrease at Yongtai and Zhuqi Stations, while the concentration period (CP) shows a potential delaying trend in projected future runoff. Regarding wet-dry encounter characteristics, significant hydrological compensation patterns are observed among runoff of different water sources, which provide favorable conditions for implementing multi-source joint operations, with synchronous occurrence probabilities of wetness-dryness conditions ranging from 0.47 to 0.65 and asynchronous probabilities spanning 0.35 to 0.53. The multi-scale analytical framework developed in this study for spatiotemporal runoff variations provides a scientific foundation for formulating coordinated multi-source operation strategies in trans-basin water transfer projects.

       

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