Abstract: Against the backdrop of global warming, extreme drought events pose significant threats to agricultural production. Studying the impact of drought on agriculture is crucial for ensuring regional food security and water resource management. This study establishes a supply-demand relationship-based water balance index using Chongqing's meteorological data for drought prediction, evaluating regional agricultural water shortages and key crop water demands. The results indicate that in late August and early September, some districts and counties may experience drought-induced water shortages for sweet potatoes and vegetables, lasting up to seven days. Additionally, reduced rainfall in November and December could lead to moderate water deficits for rapeseed in the metropolitan area and northeastern Chongqing, though the impact on crop growth is expected to be minimal. Further analysis, considering rainfall and water storage infrastructure, suggests that 2024 will not see a drought as severe as the 2022 event. Field validation confirms that the predictions align closely with actual drought conditions in 2024. Consequently, this study provides actionable recommendations and emergency preparedness strategies to enhance Chongqing’s agricultural drought resilience and water supply capacity.