考虑水利工程影响的改进MABAC洪水风险分析

    Improved MABAC Flood Risk Analysis Considering Impact of Water Conservancy Projects

    • 摘要: 精准评估地区洪水风险程度对降低洪涝灾害损失意义重大。利用水文水动力耦合模型计算不同工程条件下河道流量变化,从承灾体韧性、承灾体暴露性和洪水概率三个维度构建洪水评价指标体系,利用博弈论组合赋权和改进MABAC模型分析伊洛河流域不同工程条件下的洪水风险等级。结果表明:最近水系最大流量、人口密度和坡度三个指标对洪水风险影响程度最大;流域内洪水风险呈现“西低东高”空间分异格局,在不考虑水利工程条件时,商洛市、三门峡市和渭南市洪水风险为低等级,郑州市和洛阳市为中等级;考虑水利工程影响后,流域内所有城市洪水风险等级均为低等级,且东部洪水高风险面积减少约35%。考虑水利工程条件的洪水风险评估可为精细化洪水管理提供依据。

       

      Abstract: Accurate assessment of regional flood risks and effective mitigation of flood-induced losses are crucial for ensuring sustainable development in river basins. Firstly, the hydrologic and hydrodynamic coupling model was comprehensively used to calculate the changes of river flow under different engineering conditions. Secondly, the flood evaluation indicator system was constructed from three dimensions of disaster bearing body toughness, disaster bearing body exposure and flood probability. Finally, the flood risk degree of Yiluo River basin under different engineering conditions was analyzed by using the game theory combination weighting method and the improved multi-attribute boundary area comparison model. The results show that the indicators of maximum discharge of the nearest river system, population density and slope had the greatest influence on flood risk. The flood risk level in Yiluo River Basin presented a spatial pattern of “low in the west and high in the east”. Under baseline conditions without considering water conservancy projects, Shangluo, Sanmenxia, and Weinan exhibited low flood risk levels, while Zhengzhou and Luoyang were classified as medium-risk areas. However, when accounting for the mitigating effects of water conservancy projects, all cities in the basin showed reduced risk levels, with the high-risk zones in the eastern region decreasing by approximately 35%. This study highlights the importance of incorporating water conservancy projects impacts in flood risk assessments, providing a scientific basis for refined and dynamic flood management strategies.

       

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