金沙江下游短中期水文气象预报产品可用性分析

    Assessing operational usability of short- and medium-range hydro-meteorological forecasts in Lower Jinsha River Basin

    • 摘要: 目前对水文气象预报产品预报水平的分析大多集中在预报效果定性比较,缺乏对预报产品可用性的定量评价,现有评价指标也未考虑不同预见期预报的不确定性,如何提出一种可用性评价指标,是亟待解决的问题。本文综合考虑TS评分、平均绝对相对误差、纳什效率系数等传统预报精度评价指标及不同预见期预报的不确定性,提出预报产品可用性评价指标。以金沙江下游流域为例,对水文气象预报产品的精度进行分析,并对产品可用性进行评价,结果表明:预见期1~5d金下流域雨量预报产品、乌东德水库入库流量及累计入库水量预报产品可用性较强,预见期1~2d洪水过程预报产品可用性较强,预见期3d可用性一般。研究成果为金下流域水库群联合调度提供技术支撑,提出的可用性评价指标为分析预报产品可用性提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Currently, the assessment of hydro-meteorological forecast products primarily emphasizes qualitative comparisons of forecast performance, with limited emphasis on quantitative evaluations of product usability. Furthermore, existing evaluation metrics often fail to account for the inherent uncertainties associated with forecasts across different lead times. Therefore, the development of a usability evaluation index has become an urgent priority. This study integrates conventional accuracy evaluation indicators—such as the Threat Score , Mean Absolute Relative Error, and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient—with considerations of forecast uncertainty across varying lead times, to propose a comprehensive usability evaluation index. A case study was conducted in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River Basin, where both forecast accuracy and product usability were systematically analyzed. Results indicate that rainfall forecasts for the Jinsha River Basin, as well as inflow and cumulative inflow volume forecasts for the Wudongde Reservoir within 1- to 5-day lead times exhibit high usability. Additionally, flood process forecasts within 1-to 2-day lead times show high usability, while those within the 3-day forecast period are moderately usable. The research results provide technical support for the coordinated operation of reservoir groups in the Jinsha River Basin, and the proposed usability evaluation index offers a reference for evaluating the usability of hydro-meteorological forecast products.

       

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