长江流域水储量异常变化的NARNN-SA预测模型研究

    Forecasting changes of water storage anomalies in the Yangtze River Basin based on the NARNN-SA model

    • 摘要: 准确可靠地预测长江流域陆地水储量异常(Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies,TWSA)变化对实现高效、可持续的水资源管理具有重要意义。基于对TWSA变化自相关性的精细化考虑,本文利用一种结合季节调整和非线性自回归神经网络(Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network with Seasonal Adjustment,NARNN-SA)的方法首次预测长江流域TWSA。通过设计两项试验并与自回归(AutoRegressive,AR)模型、季节性自回归积分滑动平均(Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average,SARIMA)模型以及未进行季节调整的NARNN模型进行对比,验证本文NARNN-SA模型的有效性。结果表明,由于季节调整的引入,NARNN-SA模型在预测性能上优于其他对比模型,并与GRACE卫星观测结果高度一致;在测试阶段的相关系数、纳什效率系数和均方根误差分别为0.89,0.77和1.43 cm。此外,NARNN-SA成功预测了长江流域源头及东、西部区域的TWSA变化,并填补了GRACE与其继代卫星GRACE-FO之间的数据空缺。

       

      Abstract: Accurate and reliable predictions of TWSA over the Yangtze River Basin are crucial for achieving its efficient and sustainable water resource management. This study utlizes a method combining seasonal adjustment and a nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN-SA), leveraging the autocorrelation of TWSA changes in the Yangtze River Basin for prediction. Two tests were designed to evaluate the effectiveness of this method by comparing against three models: AutoRegression (AR), Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and a nonlinear autoregressive neural network without seasonal adjustment (NARNN). Results demonstrate that the introduction of seasonal adjustment significantly improved the predictive performance of the NARNN-SA model, which achieved high consistency with GRACE observations, with a correlation coefficient of 0.89, a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.77, and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.43 cm during the testing phase. Additionally, NARNN-SA successfully predicted TWSA changes in the headwaters, eastern, and western regions of the Yangtze River Basin and effectively bridged the data gap between the GRACE and its successor, GRACE-FO missions.

       

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