鄱阳湖枯水位变化及对环湖地区供水的影响分析

    Variations in dry-season water levels of Poyang Lake and their impact on water supply in surrounding lakeside regions

    • 摘要: 近年来,鄱阳湖枯水情势发生显著改变,对环湖区域供水安全构成严重威胁。本研究基于1980~2022年鄱阳湖主要水文站点水位观测数据、五河径流数据及Landsat遥感影像,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、突变点识别、遥感水体反演与空间分析等方法,系统解析三峡工程运行前后枯水期历时、水位变化及空间分异特征,定量评估不同水位条件下湖区水量来源结构及取水设施运行效能。结果表明:三峡工程正式运行后鄱阳湖枯水期起始时间平均提前35 d以上,结束时间平均推迟20 d以上,枯水期整体延长58~83.3 d,平均水位下降0.61~1.76 m,其中都昌站水位降幅最大,康山站相对稳定;赣江是湖区最主要补给水源,贡献占比近60%~71%,而饶河不足6.7%,且在极枯水位下来水量急剧减少;星子站12 m水位被确定为环湖区域供水安全的临界阈值,低于该水位时取水保证率显著下降,缺水影响人口可达百万规模。本研究融合多源数据与多方法,揭示江湖关系变动下枯水位演变与供水响应机制,明确关键水位阈值及其空间异质性,为鄱阳湖流域水资源协同管理、供水工程适应性改造及风险防控提供一定依据和决策支持。

       

      Abstract: In recent years, the dry-season hydrological regime of Poyang Lake has undergone significant changes, posing serious threats to the water supply security of surrounding regions. Based on water level observation data from major hydrological stations of Poyang Lake, runoff data from the five rivers, and Landsat satellite images during 1980-2022, this study employed methods such as Mann-Kendall trend analysis, mutation point identification, remote sensing water body retrieval, and spatial analysis to systematically examine the temporal duration, water level variations, and spatial differentiation characteristics of dry seasons before and after the operation of the Three Gorges Project. The operational efficiency of water intake facilities and the water source structure under different water level conditions were quantitatively evaluated. The results indicate that after the official operation of the Three Gorges Project, the onset of the dry season in Poyang Lake advanced by more than 35 days on average, while the end was delayed by over 20 days, leading to an overall extension of the dry season by 58-83.3 days and an average water level decline of 0.61-1.76 m. Among the monitoring stations, the water level decrease was most pronounced at Duchang Station, while Kangshan Station remained relatively stable. The Ganjiang River constituted the primary water source, accounting for nearly 60%-71% of the total inflow, whereas the Raohe River contributed less than 6.7%, with a sharp reduction under extremely low water level conditions. A water level of 12 m at Xingzi Station was identified as the critical threshold for regional water supply security. Below this level, the reliability of water intake significantly decreased, potentially affecting up to a million people. By integrating multi-source data and diverse analytical methods, this study reveals the evolution mechanism of dry-season water levels and the corresponding water supply response under changing river-lake interactions, identifies key water level thresholds and their spatial heterogeneity, and provides a scientific basis and decision-making support for collaborative water resource management, adaptive improvement of water supply projects, and risk prevention in the Poyang Lake basin.

       

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