MultiModal-TCN-LSTM水文时间序列高精度预测模型

    High-Precision Prediction of Hydrological Time Series Based on a MultiModal-TCN-LSTM Fusion Architecture

    • 摘要: 针对传统水文时间序列预测方法难以捕捉非线性特征、长期依赖关系及未能充分利用多要素协同信息的问题,本文提出一种基于多模态时序卷积-长短期记忆网络(MultiModal-TCN-LSTM)的高精度预测模型。该模型创新性地构建双分支并行架构:通过时序卷积网络(TCN)提取水位、流量数据的多尺度局部特征,利用长短期记忆网络(LSTM)建模全局长期依赖关系,经多模态融合层挖掘水文要素间的深层关联。采用Z-score标准化、线性插值的数据预处理方法对数据进行预处理。基于金沙江上游巴塘水文站5年实测水位-流量数据,经时间窗口优化确定8小时(h)为最优历史输入长度。在12h、24h、48h预见期的预测实验中,以RMSE、MAE、MAPE和R²综合评估表明:本文模型显著优于LSTM、TCN、TCN-LSTM及MultiModal-LSTM等基线模型,验证了多模态融合与TCN-LSTM混合架构的有效性。尤其长预见期预测中,TCN组件通过扩张卷积机制显著缓解了模型性能衰减。本研究为水文预测提供了新思路,对水电站调度、水资源配置及防洪减灾具有重要应用价值。

       

      Abstract: In response to the problems that traditional hydrological time series prediction methods are unable to capture nonlinear features, long-term dependencies, and fail to fully utilize the collaborative information of multiple elements, this paper proposes a high-precision prediction model based on the MultiModal-TCN-LSTM (Multi-modal Time Series Convolutional - Long Short-Term Memory Network). This model innovatively constructs a dual-branch parallel architecture: extracting multi-scale local features of water level and flow data through the Time Series Convolution Network (TCN), modeling the entire long-term dependencies using the Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM), and mining the deep correlations among hydrological elements through the multi-modal fusion layer. The data is preprocessed using Z-score standardization and linear interpolation methods. Based on the 5-year measured water level-flow data from the Batang Hydrological Station in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River, the optimal historical input length of 8 hours (h) was determined through time window optimization. In the prediction experiments of 12h, 24h, and 48h ahead, the comprehensive evaluation using RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R² indicates that this model significantly outperforms the baseline models such as LSTM, TCN, TCN-LSTM, and MultiModal-LSTM, verifying the effectiveness of the multi-modal fusion and TCN-LSTM hybrid architecture. Especially in the long-term prediction period, the TCN component significantly alleviates the performance degradation of the model through the expansion convolution mechanism. This research provides a new idea for hydrological prediction and has important application value for hydropower station scheduling, water resource allocation, and flood control and disaster reduction.

       

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