基于Fast-BO-LSTM的监测数据缺失值插补方法研究

    Research on interpolation method of missing value of dam monitoring data based on Fast-BO-LSTM

    • 摘要: 针对混凝土坝变形监测数据中因设备故障、数据传输失真、人为失误和环境干扰等因素导致的数据缺失问题,本文提出一种融合快速动态时间规整(FastDTW)与贝叶斯优化长短期记忆网络(BO-LSTM)的多测点缺失数据插补模型。该模型首先利用FastDTW算法挖掘多测点时间序列中的形态模式与时空关联,筛选出与目标测点具有高度相似性的参考测点;进而采用贝叶斯优化方法自适应调整LSTM网络超参数,以提升模型对复杂时序特征的建模能力,实现对缺失值的精准插补与预测。基于某混凝土坝实际监测数据的验证结果表明,FastDTWBO-LSTM模型在5%-25%的不同缺失率下均保持优良的插补性能与泛化能力。尤其在15%缺失率条件下,该模型插补效果显著优于对比方法,其决定系数(R2)达0.980,平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.109mm,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为0.61%,均方误差(MSE)为0.05mm。该模型不仅提升了监测数据插补的精度,也增强了大坝变形预测的准确性与可靠性,为工程安全运行提供了高质量的数据基础。

       

      Abstract: To address data loss in concrete dam deformation monitoring caused by equipment failure, data transmission distortion, human error, and environmental interference, this study proposes a multipoint missing data imputation model that integrates Fast Dynamic Time Warping (FastDTW) with a Bayesian-optimized Long Short-Term Memory network (BO-LSTM). The approach first employs FastDTW to identify morphological patterns and spatiotemporal correlations across multiple time series, thereby selecting highly similar reference points for the target location. Subsequently, Bayesian optimization is applied to automatically tune the hyperparameters of the LSTM network, enhancing its capacity to capture complex temporal dynamics and enabling accurate imputation and prediction of missing values. Validation using real-world monitoring data from a concrete dam demonstrates that the FastDTW-BO-LSTM model achieves consistently strong performance and robust generalization across missing rates ranging from 5% to 25%. Notably, at a 15% missing rate, the model significantly outperforms benchmark methods, achieving a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.980, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.109 mm, a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.61%, and a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.05 mm. By improving both the accuracy of data reconstruction and the reliability of deformation forecasting, the proposed model provides a high-quality data foundation essential for ensuring the safe and effective operation of dam infrastructure.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回