多源降水产品在汉江流域的误差特征分析

    Analysis of error characteristics of Multi-source precipitation products in Hanjiang River Basin

    • 摘要: 多源降水产品为广域降水信息的获取提供了便利,了解误差特性及适用性对于地区水资源规划管理、洪水预报等方面是十分必要的。本研究针对汉江流域,采用定量和定性综合精度评价指标体系对ERA5、CHIRPS、GPCC和PERSIANN-CDR四种降水产品在日尺度下开展了系统评估,同时结合误差结构分解法了解了不同降水强度下的误差特征。结果表明:(1)地形是影响多源降水产品精度的关键因素。(2) GPCC整体精度表现最优,能较好拟合汉江流域降水趋势与空间分布; ERA5整体存在显著高估,但各降水强度下均能较好地检测降水; CHIRPS整体精度最低,且在各降水强度下漏报误差突出; PERSIANN-CDR则在弱降水表现出异常突出的误报误差。(3)所有产品的主导误差均为命中误差,其中命中正(负)误差在极端弱(强)降水时尤为显著。本研究能对汉江流域降水数据的研究提供一定的参考,同时也能为类似流域在降水数据选择和应用方面提供有力的研究依据。

       

      Abstract: Multi-source precipitation products provide convenient access to large-scale precipitation information, and understanding their error characteristics and applicability is essential for regional water resource planning and management, flood forecasting, and related fields. This study focuses on Hanjiang River Basin and conducts a systematic evaluation for four precipitation products(ERA5, CHIRPS, GPCC, and PERSIANN-CDR) at the daily scale, using a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative accuracy assessment indicator system. Additionally, an error structure decomposition method is employed to analyze error characteristics across different precipitation intensities. The results indicate that: (1) Topography is a key factor influencing the accuracy of multi-source precipitation products. (2) GPCC demonstrates the highest overall accuracy, effectively capturing precipitation trends and spatial distribution in the Han River Basin. ERA5 exhibits significant overall overestimation but performs well in detecting precipitation across all intensity levels. CHIRPS has the lowest accuracy with pronounced misseddetection errors at all precipitation intensities. PERSIANN-CDR shows abnormally prominent false-alarm errors in light precipitation events. (3) The dominant error for all products is the hit errors, with positive (negative) hit errors are particularly significant during extreme light (heavy) precipitation. This study provides valuable reference for precipitation data research in the Han River Basin and offers a solid basis for the selection and application of precipitation data in similar basins.

       

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