长江流域月滚动降水趋势预测的深度学习订正方法

    Deep learning approach for calibrating rolling monthly precipitation trend prediction in Changjiang River Basin

    • 摘要: 月尺度(1-30天)滚动降水趋势预测是次季节到季节(S2S)预报的难点,其核心挑战在于订正动力模式输出中固有的系统性偏差。为应对此难题,本研究提出了一种基于混合卷积-Transformer架构(H2Former)的深度学习订正框架,并以长江流域为典型区域,通过输入因子消融试验和架构对比实验进行应用验证。结果表明:基于NCEP-CFSv2模式的预报,在2022-2024年独立测试集上,该框架将长江全流域的预报准确率由62.1%提升至64.8%,在地形复杂的金沙江下游区域,准确率提升高达8.2个百分点。输入因子消融试验表明,仅使用动力模式预报作为输入的方案即可达到64.8%的准确率,显著优于仅依赖前期大气环流因子(最高56.7%)的方案,证实了深度学习在本任务中作为高效“智能后处理器”的角色。架构对比试验进一步验证了H2Former的优越性:其64.8%的准确率高于经典的U-Net++(64.0%)和基于Transformer的SwinUNETR(64.2%)等模型。深度学习作为动力气候模式的智能后处理器,在提升S2S降水趋势预报技巧方面具有显著潜力。该框架可为发展“先定性、后定量”的精细化气候预测服务提供技术支撑,对长江流域水资源管理与防灾减灾决策具有重要应用价值。

       

      Abstract: Rolling monthly (1-30 days) precipitation prediction falls within the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale, a range often characterized by limited predictability. A key challenge lies in detecting and correcting systematic biases embedded in dynamical model outputs, which are strongly influenced by internal variability and noise. To address this challenge, we develop a deep learning bias-correction framework based on a hybrid CNN-Transformer architecture (H2Former). The framework leverages the strengths of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) in capturing local fine-scale features, while utilizing Transformers to model long-range dependencies associated with large-scale circulation patterns. To comprehensively evaluate its performance, we applied the framework to forecasts from NCEP-CFSv2 and conducted systematic bias-correction experiments, input-factor ablation studies, and architectural comparisons, using the Yangtze River Basin as a representative testbed. Results on an independent 2022-2024 test set show that forecast accuracy across the Yangtze River Basin improved from 62.1% to 64.8%, with gains of up to 8.2 percentage points in the topographically complex lower Jinsha River region. The ablation experiments further indicate that the dynamical model’s raw precipitation forecasts are the dominant source of skill, highlighting the role of deep learning in identifying and correcting spatiotemporally structured systematic biases. Comparative analyses also confirm the superiority of the hybrid H2Former design. Overall, this study demonstrates the potential of deep learning as an intelligent post-processor for dynamical climate models to enhance S2S precipitation trend prediction skill. The proposed framework provides methodological support for developing refined “qualitative-then-quantitative” climate prediction services and offers substantial application value for water resource management and disaster risk reduction in the Yangtze River Basin.

       

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