金沙江下游-三峡梯级水库2024年汛期调度成效分析

    Analysis of joint operation of the lower Jinsha River and Three Gorges cascade reservoirs in the 2024 flood season

    • 摘要: 为了进一步提升金沙江下游-三峡梯级水库联合调度能力,提高流域水资源综合利用水平,本研究反演分析了梯级水库2024年汛期与蓄水期的联合调度过程,并量化了金沙江下游梯级防洪库容整体运用、三峡水库优化调控出库流量及梯级水库联合优化调度等措施的效益增量。结果表明:面对2024年汛期丰枯急转的复杂来水情势,在水利部长江水利委员会的科学调度下,梯级水库主汛期成功应对3次编号洪水,累计拦洪134.5亿m3,有力保障防洪安全;蓄水期精细化调度,12月底梯级水库可用水量333亿m3,较2023年同期偏多27亿m3,为枯水期供水打下坚实基础;与规程调度方式相比,联合优化调度减少弃水量83亿m3,考虑期末蓄能共增发电量73亿kW·h,大幅提升兴利效益。2024年金沙江下游-三峡梯级水库的联合优化调度经验可为流域控制性水库群的调度方式优化、多目标协同调控提供重要参考。

       

      Abstract: To further enhance the joint operation capability of the cascade reservoirs of the lower Jinsha River and the Three Gorges, and improve the comprehensive utilization level of basin water resources, this study inversely analyzed the joint operation process of the cascade reservoirs during the 2024 flood season and impoundment period. It quantified the benefits of the measures such as the overall use of flood control storage capacity of the Jinsha River downstream cascade reservoirs, the optimized regulation of outflow from the Three Gorges Reservoir, and the joint optimized scheduling of the cascade reservoirs. Results show that facing the complex inflow conditions (i.e. “drought-flood abrupt alteration”) in the 2024 flood season, under the scientific regulation of the Changjiang Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources, the cascade reservoirs scientifically responded to three numbered floods, intercepting 13.45 billion cubic meters of floodwater in the main flood season, thereby robustly ensuring flood control safety. In the impoundment period, through refined impoundment operations, the available water volume of the cascade reservoirs reached 33.3 billion cubic meters by the end of December, which was 2.7 billion cubic meters more than the same period in 2023, laying a solid foundation for water supply in the dry season. Additionally, the joint scheduling reduced water abandonment by 8.3 billion cubic meters and increased power generation by 7.3 billion kilowatt-hours, significantly improving beneficial effects. The joint optimal scheduling practices of the cascade reservoirs in 2024 provide valuable references for optimizing operational strategies of basin-controlled reservoir systems and achieving multi-objective collaborative regulation.

       

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