“三水统筹”治理绩效评价及影响因素研究——以长江中下游地区为例

    Study on the evaluation and influencing factors of “Three Waters Overall Planning”: a case study of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

    • 摘要: 受经济、社会活动影响,长江流域面临着资源短缺、污染频发与水土流失问题,水资源及其生态环境保护问题亟待解决。基于“自然-社会”二元水循环、陆海统筹与统筹水资源-水环境-水生态(“三水统筹”)理论,构建由可持续系统、屏障系统、涵养系统、经济系统、社会系统5个子系统组成的“三水统筹”治理绩效评价指标体系,运用熵权-TOPSIS模型、障碍度模型,分析了2008—2023年长江中下游地区25个地级及以上市“三水统筹”治理绩效的时空变化及影响因素。结果显示:(1)长江中下游地区“三水统筹”治理绩效平均得分为0.1624,位于中等偏上水平,其中中游地区平均得分0.1743,治理绩效相比下游地区平均得分0.1557略好,但均存在较大时空差异。(2)长江中下游地区“三水统筹”治理绩效的年均增幅基本为正,极差系数也较稳定,治理绩效总体水平呈现不断增长趋势,其中上海市治理绩效得分在研究期间长期保持较高水平,成果突出,而九江市、马鞍山市、合肥市、南昌市则存在波动下降趋势。(3)影响长江中下游地区“三水统筹”治理的主要因素障碍度为涵养系统>社会系统>屏障系统>经济系统>可持续系统,不同市间的障碍因素各有差异。针对不同区域确定治理侧重点,提出修复自然屏障、完善顶层设计、发展云端管理对策,为长江中下游地区水资源管理,水生态环境保护及可持续发展提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Affected by economic and social activities, the Yangtze River Basin confronts problems including resource shortage, frequent pollution and water and soil loss. The protection of water resources and the ecological environment urgently requires solutions. Based on the theories of Dualistic Water Cycle, Land-Sea Integration and overall governance of water resources, water environment and water ecology (“Three Waters Overall Planning”), the evaluation index system of “Three Waters Overall Planning” is constructed and composed of 5 subsystems: the sustainability system, barrier system, conservation system, economic system and social system. The entropy weight TOPSIS model and the obstacle degree model are applied to analyze the spatiotemporal variations and influencing factors of the performance of “Three Waters Overall Planning” in 25 prefecture-level and above cities within the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 2008 to 2023. The results show as follows: (1) The average score of “Three Waters Overall Planning” performance in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is 0.1624, ranking at the upper-medium level. Among them, the average score of the middle reaches is 0.1743, and the governance performance is slightly better than the average score of 0.1557 in the lower reaches, but there are significant spatiotemporal disparities. (2) In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the average annual growth rate of “Three Waters Overall Planning” performance is generally positive, and the coefficient of range is also relatively stable. The overall level of governance performance showed a continuous upward trend. Among them, the governance performance score of Shanghai consistently remained at a relatively high level for a long time during the research period, with outstanding achievements, while Jiujiang, Ma’anshan, Hefei and Nanchang exhibited a fluctuating downward trend. (3) The obstacle degrees of the main factors affecting the management of “Three Waters Overall Planning” in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is conservation system > social system > barrier system > economic system > sustainability system, and the obstacle factors are different among cities. To determine the governance priorities for different regions, it proposes countermeasures such as restoring natural barriers, improving top-level design, and developing cloud-based management, providing references for water resource management, water ecological environment protection, and sustainable development in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

       

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