基于CHIRPS与SPEI数据集的云南省干旱监测研究

    Drought monitoring in Yunnan province based on CHIRPS and SPEI datasets

    • 摘要: 云南省地处季风边缘区,受气候变化和地形条件影响,近年来干旱频发、时空分异显著。为了准确识别区域干旱变化规律,提升干旱灾害应对能力,亟需开展基于高时空分辨率数据的定量化干旱监测研究。本文基于2000—2022年CHIRPS卫星降水数据和标准化降水蒸发指数(SPEI),采用Theil-Sen中位数趋势估计和Mann-Kendall检验,系统分析了云南省地级市尺度的降水演变趋势、干旱频率、持续时间及空间分布特,以SPEI≤-1.5被用于界定干旱事件的发生。研究表明,云南省东南部、中部及西北部地区在过去23年间干旱发生频率较高,且干旱加剧趋势显著。累计干旱事件次数超过15次,2019年东南部地区干旱持续时间最长达8个月,SPEI最低值为-1.8,干旱严重程度明显。降水减少与干旱频率增加呈显著正相关,尤其是昆明市、玉溪市、红河州等区域受影响最为突出。研究揭示了云南省干旱演变的区域差异和时空分布格局,为制定地市级差异化干旱应急预案提供了数据支撑与理论依据。

       

      Abstract: Yunnan Province, located at the margin of the East Asian monsoon zone, has experienced frequent drought events in recent years due to the combined influences of climate change and complex topography. These droughts exhibit pronounced spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability. To accurately identify regional drought evolution and enhance disaster response capacity, it is essential to conduct quantitative drought monitoring using high-resolution spatiotemporal datasets. This study utilizes CHIRPS satellite-based precipitation data from 2000 to 2022 and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The Theil-Sen median trend estimator and Mann-Kendall test are employed to systematically analyze precipitation trends, drought frequency, duration, and spatial distribution patterns at the prefectural level across Yunnan Province. A threshold of SPEI ≤ -1.5 is used to define drought events. Results show that the southeastern, central, and northwestern regions of Yunnan have experienced high drought frequency over the past 23 years, with a clear intensifying trend. The cumulative number of drought events in some areas exceeded 15, with the southeastern region suffering the longest drought in 2020, lasting up to 8 months and reaching a minimum SPEI of -1.8. A significant positive correlation is found between precipitation decline and increased drought frequency, with Kunming, Yuxi, and Honghe identified as particularly vulnerable regions. This study reveals the spatiotemporal patterns and regional disparities in drought evolution in Yunnan, providing essential data support and theoretical foundation for the development of localized drought emergency response plans at the prefectural level. The findings have strong practical significance for disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation in monsoon-fringe regions.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回