基于ANFIS的大坝地震动PGA预测模型研究

    Comparative analysis of ANFIS-based PGA prediction model construction and performance for dam seismic motion

    • 摘要: 为了能够在震后快速为大坝安全评估及时提供地震峰值加速度(PGA)数据支持,提高地震应急响应的效率。本研究基于自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)构建了一种综合考虑了震源参数(包括震级M、方位角θ、深度H)、传播路径参数(震中距R)以及场地响应特征(测点PGA)的大坝地震动PGA预测模型,形成了一个多维度的非线性预测框架。以某水电站周边350km范围内记录的500次地震事件实测数据为基础,对ANFIS、随机森林、极端随机树、岭回归等23种方法的模型预测性能进行了比较分析。研究结果显示,ANFIS模型在测试数据上的决定系数(R2)为0.827,相较于其它预测模型预测效果突出,具有较高的训练效率,并且展现出更出色的泛化能力。ANFIS模型在预测大坝地震动PGA 时,具有更高的预测精度和出色的稳定性,可以作为大坝结构安全快速评估的一种有效方法。

       

      Abstract: In order to be able to quickly provide timely peak ground acceleration (PGA) data support for dam safety assessment after an earthquake, and to improve the efficiency of earthquake emergency response. In this study, a PGA prediction model for dam seismic motion is constructed based on the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), which integrates the seismic source parameters (including magnitude M, azimuth θ, and depth H), the propagation path parameter (epicentral distance R), and the site response characteristics (PGA at the measurement points), and forms a multidimensional nonlinear prediction framework. Based on the measured data of 500 seismic events recorded within 350 km around a hydropower plant, the model prediction performance of 23 methods, including ANFIS, random forest, extreme random tree, and ridge regression, was compared and analyzed. The results show that the ANFIS model has a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.827 on the test data, which is outstanding compared with other prediction models in terms of prediction effect, has a high training efficiency, and demonstrates a better generalization ability. The ANFIS model has higher prediction accuracy and excellent stability in predicting the strong vibration PGA of dams, and can be used as an effective method for the rapid assessment of the structural safety of dams.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回