长江源区次季节尺度降水径流预测评价及偏差校正

    Assessment and correction of S2S precipitation and runoff prediction in the headwater of Yangtze River

    • 摘要: 次季节尺度(Subseasonal to seasonal, S2S)降水预测因其较长的预见期,能够在更长的时间尺度上提供参考信息,应用于长江源区时可有效延长长江流域径流预测的时效性。然而,现有S2S降水预测产品在长江源区往往误差较大,且空间分辨率粗糙,用于驱动对数据质量要求较高的水文模型时,可能会引入较大偏差。因此,如何合理使用S2S降水预测产品开展径流预测值得研究。本研究选取了来自全球4个预测中心的S2S预测产品,对其降水预测精度进行了评价,采用日尺度偏差校正方法对原始降水预测产品进行了校正,并分析了偏差校正对S2S降水预测效果的影响,以及两种校正策略(校正驱动和校正径流)在长江源区S2S径流预测中的作用。结果表明,来自欧洲中期天气预报中心的S2S产品在降水预测中表现最佳,偏差校正可显著提升各不同来源S2S产品对降水的预测效果,具体表现为偏差校正后预测数据与观测数据间的误差减小,且校正效果随预见期延伸更明显。同时,综合考虑校正效果和计算步骤,直接校正径流更适用于长江源区次季节尺度径流预测的校正。通过本文的研究,可为长江流域次季节尺度的降水径流业务预测提供技术参考。

       

      Abstract: Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation prediction, characterized by its relatively long lead time, can provide reference information on a longer temporal scale. When applied to the headwater of the Yangtze River, it can effectively extend the timeliness of runoff prediction in the Yangtze River Basin. However, existing S2S precipitation prediction products often exhibit large errors and coarse spatial resolution in the headwater of the Yangtze River. When used to drive hydrological models that have high requirements for data quality, these products may introduce significant biases. Therefore, investigating how to reasonably utilize S2S precipitation prediction products for runoff prediction is of great research value. In this study, S2S prediction products from 4 global prediction centers were selected, and their precipitation prediction accuracy was evaluated. A daily-scale bias correction method was applied to the original precipitation prediction products. Furthermore, the study analyzed the impact of bias correction on the performance of S2S precipitation prediction, as well as the roles of two correction strategies (correction of driving data and correction of runoff) in S2S runoff prediction in the headwater of the Yangtze River. The results show that the S2S product from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) performs the best in precipitation prediction. Bias correction can significantly improve the precipitation prediction performance of S2S products from different sources, which is specifically reflected in the reduction of errors between the predicted data (after bias correction) and the observed data. Moreover, the improvement effect becomes more pronounced as the lead time extends. Meanwhile, considering both the correction effect and computational procedures, direct runoff correction is more suitable for the bias correction of subseasonal-to-seasonal runoff prediction in the headwater of the Yangtze River. This study can provide technical references for the operational prediction of subseasonal-to-seasonal precipitation and runoff in the Yangtze River Basin.

       

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