基于贝叶斯优化算法的BiGRU土石坝位移预测模型

    Displacement prediction model for earth-rock dams based on Bayesian optimization algorithm and BiGRU

    • 摘要: 土石坝位移预测是大坝安全监测的核心内容之一。传统方法如统计模型和机器学习模型虽有一定效果,但存在参数优化效率低、时序特征提取不足等问题。近年来,贝叶斯优化算法(Bayesian Optimization,BO)因其全局搜索能力强、适应高维参数空间的特点,在工程预测领域得到广泛应用。双向门控循环单元(Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit,BiGRU)能够同时捕捉时间序列的前后依赖关系,较传统门控制循环单元GRU更适合复杂时间序列建模。针对土石坝位移监测时间序列数据具有的非线性和非平稳性等特征,本文提出一种融合贝叶斯优化与BiGRU的土石坝位移预测模型(BO-BiGRU),通过贝叶斯优化自动调整BiGRU模型超参数,结合实测位移数据实现高精度预测。结果表明,与BO-GRU、GRU、BO-SVM、SVM及逐步回归模型(SRA)相比,BO-BiGRU模型的RMSE和MAE分别降低了18.9%、23.2%、33.9%、39.4%、48.7%和19.6%、23.9%、31.1%、41.1%、49.9%,且R2均值达到0.98。此外,与其他预测方法相比,BO-BiGRU模型在预测准确性和稳定性方面表现更优,能够有效刻画土石坝变形的长期变化趋势及其受水位波动影响的动态特征,为土石坝位移预测提供了新方法。

       

      Abstract: The prediction of earth-rock dam displacement is one of the core contents of dam safety monitoring. Traditional methods such as statistical models and machine learning models have certain effects, but there are some problems such as low efficiency of parameter optimization and insufficient extraction of time series features. In recent years, Bayesian optimization algorithm (BO) has been widely used in the field of engineering prediction due to its strong global search capability and adaptability to high-dimensional parameter spaces. Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BiGRU) can capture the forward and backward dependency relationships of time series simultaneously, making it more suitable for complex time series modeling than traditional GRU. Aiming at the complicated nonlinear and nonstationary characteristics of the time series of earth-rock dam displacement monitoring, this paper proposes a displacement prediction model for earth-rock dam (BO-BiGRU) which combines Bayesian optimization and BiGRU, automatically adjusts the superparameters of BiGRU model through Bayesian optimization, and realizes high-precision prediction by combining the measured displacement data. The results show that compared with the BO-GRU, GRU, BO-SVM, SVM and SRA models, the RMSE and MAE of the BO-BiGRU model decreased by 18.9%、23.2%、33.9%、39.4%、48.7%and 19.6%、23.9%、31.1%、41.1%、49.9% respectively, and the mean R2 reached 0.98. The results show that, compared with other prediction methods, BO-BiGRU model has higher prediction accuracy and better stability, and can better reflect the long-term deformation trend of earth-rock dam and its fluctuation characteristics with water level, which provides a new method for displacement prediction of earth-rock dam.

       

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