耦合信号分解和机器学习的防洪调度规则提取研究——以三峡水库为例

    Research on Extraction of Flood Control Operation Rules Using Coupled Signal Decomposition and Machine Learning: Case Study of Three Gorges Reservoir

    • 摘要: 水库调度规则是水库在日常业务运行中的基本依据,现有水库调度规则提取方法在准确提取优化调度模型结果信息上存在不足。为了保障汛期三峡水库上下游防洪保护对象的安全,构建了考虑三峡上下游防洪任务的多目标优化调度模型,采用极限梯度提升树 (XGBoost)、轻量化梯度提升机 (LightGBM)、径向基函数神经网络 (RBFNN)、卷积神经网络 (CNN) 四种机器学习模型,并结合集合经验模态分解 (EEMD)、完全自适应噪声集合经验模态分解 (CEEMDAN)、变分模态分解 (VMD) 和经验小波变换 (EWT) 四种信号分解方法对模型输入(入库流量及出库流量)进行分解预处理,建立了基于机器学习的三峡水库调度规则提取方法。在三峡水库的应用结果表明:耦合信号分解方法与机器学习模型能够显著提高出库流量的模拟精度,相较于纯机器学习模型在决策系数R2上能提高0.1以上,其中,耦合EEMD分解和EWT分解的机器学习模型在决策系数R2上能提高约0.3;耦合EWT的模型在模拟调度方案的效果上优于其他三种分解模型,更加接近优化调度的Pareto前沿解集。本研究为复杂水库系统调度规则的智能提取提供了一种有效的混合提取新范式。

       

      Abstract: Reservoir operation rules are the fundamental basis for the daily operation of a reservoir. However, existing methods for extracting reservoir operation rules have deficiencies in accurately capturing the information from optimal operation models. To ensure the safety of flood protection objects upstream and downstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir during the flood season, a multi-objective optimization operation model that considers the flood control tasks of the upstream and downstream areas was constructed. Four machine learning models, namely Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), were employed. These models were combined with four signal decomposition methods—Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN), Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), and Empirical Wavelet Transform (EWT)—to preprocess the model inputs (inflow and outflow) by decomposition. This approach was used to establish a machine learning-based method for extracting the operation rules of the Three Gorges Reservoir. The application results at the Three Gorges Reservoir show that coupling signal decomposition methods with machine learning models can significantly improve the simulation accuracy of outflow. Compared to using machine learning models alone, the coefficient of determination (R²) for the decision variables can be improved by more than 0.1. Specifically, machine learning models coupled with EEMD and EWT decomposition can increase the R² of the decision variables by approximately 0.3. The model coupled with EWT outperforms the other three decomposition models in simulating the operation scheme and is closer to the Pareto front of the optimal operation. This research provides an effective hybrid extraction paradigm for the intelligent extraction of operation rules for complex reservoir systems.

       

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