《长江保护法》的政策扩散路径与影响因素研究

    The Diffusion Pathways and Impacts of the Yangtze River Protection Law

    • 摘要: 长江经济带是我国经济社会高质量发展的核心区域与生态文明建设的战略要地,其政策实施效能对全域可持续发展意义重大。针对该区域政策扩散机制研究不足的问题,本文以《长江保护法》为研究对象,基于政策扩散理论,构建“Bass模型-粗糙集”耦合框架,解析政策时空扩散规律及驱动因素。研究表明:(1)政策扩散呈平缓S型曲线,分初期探索期(2019-2020)、快速增长期(2020-2022)与深化巩固期(2022-至今)三阶段,内部模仿效应主导扩散进程;(2)空间上呈现“核心城市优先-邻近区域跟进”的层级扩散特征;(3)粗糙集量化分析表明,产业结构与科技水平是最为核心的驱动因素。本文融合了政策扩散理论与粗糙集方法,揭示流域法律政策的多维传导机制,提出“产业-科技”双轮驱动策略,为长江经济带构建“法律约束-产业升级-技术创新”协同治理模式提供实证依据,助力生态文明建设从制度设计向实践效能转化。

       

      Abstract: The Yangtze River Economic Belt, a pivotal region for China’s high-quality economic development and ecological civilization construction, plays a strategic role in achieving sustainable growth. Addressing the limited understanding of policy diffusion mechanisms in this area, this study investigates the Yangtze River Protection Law through a policy diffusion lens, developing an integrated analytical framework that couples the Bass diffusion model with rough set theory to unravel spatiotemporal diffusion patterns and driving factors. Key findings include: (1)The policy diffusion exhibits a gradual sigmoidal curve, proceeding through three distinct phases: initial exploration (2019–2020), rapid expansion (2020–2022), and consolidation (2022–present), with internal imitation effects predominantly driving the adoption dynamics; (2) Spatially, a hierarchical diffusion pattern emerges, characterized by early adoption in core cities (e.g., Hubei, Chongqing) followed by neighboring regions; (3) Rough set analysis identifies industrial structure and technological capacity as the most critical drivers, surpassing administrative influence by over threefold. By innovatively merging policy diffusion theory with rough set methods, this work elucidates the multidimensional transmission mechanisms of basin-scale legal policies and proposes a dual-engine strategy prioritizing industrial and technological synergies. These insights establish an empirical foundation for a coordinated governance framework integrating legal constraints, industrial upgrading, and technological innovation, ultimately bridging the gap between institutional design and practical implementation in ecological governance.

       

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