融合SNA和N-K的地下洞室施工进度风险耦合分析

    Coupling analysis of schedule risk for underground cavern construction integrating SNA and N-K

    • 摘要: 为有效控制地下洞室施工进度,解决多因素耦合对进度风险的影响,提出一种社会网络分析(SNA)与N-K融合的风险耦合分析方法。首先,根据工作-风险分解(WBS-RBS)分析法识别风险因素,构建风险因素集;其次,运用SNA构建风险关联网络模型,明晰风险因素间的相互作用机理,揭示其潜在的耦合关系,分析各节点的重要性;然后,结合风险耦合机制,引入N-K模型构建地下洞室施工进度风险耦合模型,量化不同耦合关系下的耦合强度,求解不同耦合类型下的耦合值,并利用耦合值修正SNA中各节点的重要性,从而构建SNA和N-K融合的风险因素耦合评估模型。最后,对乌东德泄洪洞工程进行实例分析,提炼出人、物、环、管4类影响进度延误的一级风险因素和13种二级风险因素,深入剖析各风险因素间耦合的内在规律,精准锁定关键风险因素。结果表明:参与耦合的风险因素越多,耦合值越大,风险事件越容易发生;不良地形地质、恶劣天气、变更设计和施工互相干扰是导致进度延误的关键风险因素。

       

      Abstract: In response to the challenges in controlling the construction schedule of underground caverns and addressing the impact of multi-factor coupling on schedule risks, this paper proposes a risk coupling analysis method that integrates Social Network Analysis (SNA) with the N-K model. Firstly, risk factors are systematically identified using the Work Breakdown Structure-Risk Breakdown Structure (WBS-RBS) method, and a comprehensive set of such factors is established. Secondly, a risk association network is constructed using SNA to clarify interaction mechanisms, reveal latent coupling relationships, and evaluate the importance of each node. Building on the risk coupling mechanism, the N-K model is then introduced to develop a schedule risk coupling model for underground cavern construction. This model quantifies coupling strengths under different coupling relationships and derives corresponding coupling values, which are subsequently applied to adjust node importance in the SNA, thereby establishing an integrated SNA and N-K model for coupled risk assessment. Finally, a case study of the Wudongde Spillway Tunnel Project is conducted, identifying four primary risk categories (human, material, environmental, and managerial) and 13 secondary risk factors that significantly contribute to schedule delays. The case study reveals intrinsic coupling patterns among these risk factors and pinpoints the most critical ones. Results demonstrate that a higher number of coupled risk factors leads to greater coupling values and an increased probability of risk events. Key risk factors responsible for schedule delays include adverse geological conditions, severe weather, design changes, and construction interference.

       

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