基于主客观融合赋权的防洪调度风险效益决策评价

    Risk-benefit decision evaluation of flood control operation based on subjective-objective integrated weighting

    • 摘要: 为解决复杂水工程防洪调度方案决策难题,提出了基于AHP-CRITIC-TOPSIS的主客观融合赋权风险效益评价决策模型,以长江流域1954年7月28日至8月3日大洪水防洪调度推演为例,构建防洪调度风险效益指标体系,通过AHP-CRITIC法耦合实现指标权重的“经验导向-数据驱动”的协同优化,并将TOPSIS法应用到水工程联合防洪调度方案调控效果评价中。结果表明风险效益指标存在博弈,受影响人口数指标权重最大达0.2513,组合权重更好的融合了专家决策偏好经验;推荐的最优方案3相较于方案1以减少防洪库容76.3亿m3为代价,使下游超额洪量减少了50亿m3,受影响人口减少了120.8万人,淹没损失减少了232亿元。研究成果可为复杂水工程联合防洪调度调控效果评价和方案优选提供参考。

       

      Abstract: To address the decision-making problem of flood control scheduling schemes for complex water projects, a subjective and objective integrated weighting risk-benefit evaluation and decision-making model based on AHP-CRITIC-TOPSIS was proposed. Taking the flood control scheduling simulation of the Yangtze River Basin from July 28 to August 3, 1954 as an example, a flood control scheduling risk-benefit index system was constructed. The AHP-CRITIC method was used to achieve the collaborative optimization of index weights in a "experience-oriented - data-driven" manner, and the TOPSIS method was applied to the evaluation of the regulation effect of the joint flood control scheduling schemes of water projects. The results show that there is a game among the risk-benefit indicators, with the weight of the affected population indicator reaching the maximum of 0.2513. The combined weight better integrates the expert decision-making preference experience. Compared with Scheme 1, the recommended optimal Scheme 3 reduces the excess flood volume downstream by 5 billion cubic meters, the affected population by 1.208 million people, and the inundation loss by 23.2 billion yuan at the cost of reducing the flood control capacity by 7.63 billion cubic meters. The research results can provide reference for evaluating the regulation effectiveness and optimizing schemes in joint flood control scheduling of complex water engineering projects.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回