基于BO-Autoformer的泥水大盾构刀盘扭矩多步预测

    Multi-step prediction of torque of mud-water large shield cutter plate based on BO-Autoformer

    • 摘要: 在过江盾构智能掘进过程中,为了及时且更优地调整刀盘扭矩、避免刀盘卡住,本研究开发了应用于泥水大盾构机刀盘扭矩多步预测的Autoformer深度学习模型,并采用贝叶斯优化(BO)进行调参。首先,利用关键泥水大盾构机参数和刀盘扭矩的历史时间数据,探索了模型的最佳输入时间步长以及极限输出步长。在此基础上,通过SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)对模型进行分析,加强模型的可解释性以及在实际工程中的应用可靠性。使用武汉过江段实际数据进行研究,结果表明:1) Autoformer算法为刀盘扭矩的精准多步预测提供了支持,平均R2为0.946,平均RMSE为189.149kN.m,平均MAE为194.213kN.m。2) Autoformer算法在一定的输入时间步长下,预测精准度稳定,探索出的预测最佳输入步长为16,预测极限输出步长为11。3) 刀盘扭矩历史时间数据是未来预测结果的关键贡献者,刀盘挤压力对于预测结果也有着较大的影响。

       

      Abstract: To enable real-time optimization of cutterhead torque adjustment and prevent cutterhead clogging during the intelligent excavation of river-crossing shield tunneling, this study develops an Autoformer deep learning model for multi-step prediction of cutterhead torque in slurry shield tunnel boring machines, with hyperparameters optimized using Bayesian optimization (BO). First, the optimal input time step as well as the limit output step of the model were explored using historical time data of key shield machine parameters and cutter torque. On this basis, the model is analyzed by SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to enhance the interpretability of the model as well as the reliability of its application in real engineering. The study was carried out using actual data from the Wuhan river-crossing section, and the results show that: 1) The Autoformer algorithm provides support for accurate multi-step prediction of cutter torque, with an average R2 of 0.946, an average RMSE of 189.149 kN.m, and an average MAE of 194.213 kN.m. 2) The Autoformer algorithm has stable prediction accuracy for a certain input time step, and the optimal input step for prediction is explored to be 16, and the limiting output step for prediction is 11. 3) Historical time data of the cutter torque is a key contributor to the future prediction results, and the cutter squeezing pressure also has a large impact on the prediction results.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回