基于SBGS模型与后处理误差校正的水位预测

    Water level prediction based on SBGS model and post-processing error correction

    • 摘要: 为有效防范三峡-葛洲坝梯级水库调度引发的下游淹没风险,本文以葛洲坝下游胭脂坝水位为研究对象,构建基于Squeeze-and-Excitation Block、GRU与Selfattention耦合的SBGS深度学习模型,并结合自回归、高斯过程回归和随机森林三种后处理方法形成“深度学习+误差校正”的双阶段预测框架,实现了24小时预见期的水位预测。利用2023~2024年逐小时水位数据验证表明:① SBGS模型平均绝对误差为0.08m,合格率为70.1%,相较于单一GRU模型精度更高;② 自回归、高斯过程回归及随机森林三种后处理方法均能提升原始模型的预测精度,随机森林后处理结果精度最高,平均绝对误差减小至0.05m,合格率提升至81.9%;③ 剔除葛洲坝出库计划与实际出库流量偏差较大时段后,SBGS模型及三种后处理预测结果精度显著提升,更真实反映了模型性能。本文提出的双阶段预测框架预报精度较高,可为水库下游河道水位作业预报提供新思路,可作为防范葛洲坝下游淹没风险、优化梯级水库调度的科学依据。

       

      Abstract: In order to effectively prevent the risk of lower reaches inundation caused by the operation of the Three Gorges-Gezhouba cascade reservoirs, this paper takes the water level of Yanzhiba as the research object, constructs a SBGS deep learning model based on Squeeze-and-Excitation Block, GRU and Selfattention coupling, and forms a dual-stage prediction framework of “deep learning+error correction” by combining autoregressive, Gaussian process regression and random forest post-processing methods, and realizes the water level prediction in the 24-hour forecasting. Using hourly water level data from 2023 to 2024 demonstrates: (1)The SBGS model has a mean absolute error of 0.08m and a pass rate of 70.1%, exhibiting higher accuracy than the single GRU model; (2)Three post-processing methods of autoregression, Gaussian process regression, and random forest can improve the prediction accuracy of the original model. Random forest post-processing shows the highest precision, reducing the mean absolute error to 0.05m and increasing the pass rate to 81.9%; (3)After excluding the period of time when there is a large deviation between the Gezhouba dam outflow plan and the actual outflow, the accuracy of the original model prediction results and the three post-processing results can be improved, which is more realistically reflecting the performance of the model. The dual-stage prediction framework has high prediction accuracy, which provides a new idea for the operation prediction of water level in the lower reaches of the reservoir, and can be used as a scientific basis for preventing the risk of flooding in the lower reaches of Gezhouba Dam and optimizing the operation of cascade reservoirs.

       

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