中国大河入海径流量变化过程及对ENSO和EASM的响应

    Variation process of runoff from major Chinese rivers into the sea and their response to ENSO and EASM

    • 摘要: 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)是全球年际气候变化的重要信号,东亚夏季风(EASM)是造成中国夏季降水异常的主导因素,两者是影响全球和区域尺度水文过程的重要气候现象。为揭示河流入海径流量的变化特征以及对ENSO和EASM的响应,本文基于1960-2023年中国代表性河流——黄河、长江和珠江入海水文站的径流量数据,运用M-K非参数检验、Morlet小波分析等方法,分析三条河流入海径流量的趋势和周期变化,探究入海径流量变化对ENSO和EASM的响应。结果表明:黄河、长江和珠江入海径流量分别呈现显著减少、不显著增加和不显著减少的趋势变化,且发生突变年份分别为1985年、1988和2003年、1983、1992和2002年。三大河流入海径流量均存在2~8 a时间尺度上的年际周期变化,由北向南对ENSO的响应越发显著;进入21世纪后入海径流量对ENSO的响应均不显著。黄河和长江入海径流量与EASM存在2~6 a时间尺度上的年际周期变化,但珠江入海径流量与EASM无显著共振周期;三条河流入海径流量与EASM不存在长时间尺度(年代际)上的显著共振周期。研究结果可为流域水资源管理、旱涝防治和区域水文过程研究提供参考依据。

       

      Abstract: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important signal of global interannual climate change, and the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is the dominant factor contributing to summer precipitation anomalies in China, both are important climatic phenomena affecting hydrological processes at global and regional scales. In order to reveal the change characteristics of river runoff into the sea and its response to ENSO and EASM, this paper is based on the runoff data from 1960-2023 at the hydrographic stations of China's representative rivers-the Yellow River, Yangtze River, and Pearl River-into the sea, and applies M-K nonparametric tests, Morlet wavelet analysis, and other methods to analyze the trend and cycle of the runoff volume of the three rivers. Using M-K nonparametric test, Morlet wavelet analysis and other methods, we analyze the trend and cycle change of the runoff into the sea, and investigate the response of the change of the runoff into the sea to ENSO and EASM. The results show that the inflow of the Yellow River, the Yangtze River and the Pearl River show a significant decrease, a non-significant increase and a non-significant decrease in the trend changes, and the years of abrupt changes are 1985, 1988 and 2003, 1983, 1992 and 2002, respectively. The three major rivers have interannual cycles of 2~8 a time scale, and the response to ENSO is more and more significant from the north to the south; after entering the 21st century, the response of runoff to ENSO is not significant. There are interannual cycles of the Yellow River and Yangtze River runoff with EASM on the time scale of 2-6 a, but the Pearl River runoff has no significant resonance cycle with EASM; there is no significant resonance cycle of the three rivers' runoff with EASM on a long time scale (inter-annual). The results may serve as a scientific basis for the basin-scale water resources management, the flood/drought mitigation strategies and the region hydrological processes study.

       

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