2022年长江流域枯水特征分析与启示
Characteristics and enlightenment of low water in Changjiang River Basin in 2022
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摘要: 2022年汛期,长江流域来水由偏丰转为明显偏枯,7月以来,长江流域持续高温少雨,江河来水偏少、水位持续走低,多站水位为有实测记录以来历史同期最低。为明晰2022年长江流域汛期丰枯变化过程,将汛期分为3个阶段分析流域降水的时空分布、主要干支流来水的丰枯变化;然后根据水库调蓄分析了干支流来水的枯水重现期,并对本次枯水进行了定性分析,总结了枯水特征和成因;最后结合2022年长江流域汛期枯水特征,探讨了长江流域抗旱新需求。分析表明:长江流域2022年6月中旬后降水丰枯急转,7月起上中下游来水同枯,且偏枯程度逐渐加剧,中下游干流8月出现超100 a一遇枯水;经频率分析,对本次长江流域汛期枯水定性为流域性严重枯水。研究成果可为今后长江流域旱情防御提供借鉴。Abstract: The water discharge of Changjiang River Basin changed from abundant to obviously dry during flood season of 2022.Since July,Changjiang River Basin has experienced severe heat temperature and low precipitation,with decreasing water discharge and low water level,the water level of some hydrological station reached the lowest in the history of same period since recorded.In order to clarify the reason of change process from abundant to dry during flood season of 2022 of the Changjiang River Basin,this paper divided the flood season into three stages to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in the basin,and the changes of high-water and low-water of Changjiang River.And the low-flow recurrence periods of Changjiang River was analyzed considering the impact of reservoir regulation,the definition,characteristics and causation of low water of Changjiang River were revealed.Finally,based on the characteristics and causation of low water of Changjiang River Basin during flood season in 2022,this paper discussed the new needs for drought resistance in Changjiang River Basin.The results showed that after the mid-June,the rainfall turned from abundant to dry,the water from the upper,middle and lower reaches has dried up at the same time since July,and the degree of drought also gradually increased.In August,the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River encountered 100-year low water.Through frequency analysis,this low water in the Changjiang River Basin was classified as severe low water in basin scale.The research results can provide reference for the future drought prevention in the Changjiang River.
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