金沙江下游至三峡水库以上区域降雨演变规律分析

    Analysis on precipitation evolution in region from lower Jinsha River to upper Three Gorges Reservoir

    • 摘要: 揭示金沙江下游至三峡水库以上关键区域降雨的年代际变化规律及暴雨时空演变特征,对于长江上游水资源管理及三峡水库优化调度具有重要意义。通过回归分析、Mann-Kendall检验、功率谱分析以及合成分析等方法,重点针对雅砻江流域、金沙江下游及长江上游干流三大区域,系统评估了全年、主汛期、蓄水期和关键消落期的降雨演变规律。研究结果表明:雅砻江流域全年及消落期降雨量呈显著增加趋势,而金沙江下游和长江上游干流所有时段均表现为下降趋势;在降雨周期特征方面,雅砻江主汛期存在5 a周期,蓄水期存在13 a周期,金沙江下游蓄水期呈现3 a周期,长江上游干流主汛期和消落期则存在3 a周期;对暴雨样本的合成分析进一步揭示,长江上游干流暴雨通常在前1 d始于北部嘉陵江、岷江流域,东移南压至干流增强为大雨,次日继续东移减弱为三峡区间中雨后移出研究区。研究成果可为梯级水库防洪抗旱协同调度及气候变化应对提供关键支撑。

       

      Abstract: Revealing the interdecadal variation patterns of rainfall and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of rainstorms in the key region from the lower reaches of the Jinsha River to the upper section of the Three Gorges Reservoir is of great significance for water resource management in the upper Changjiang River and the optimal operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Using regression analysis, Mann-Kendall tests, power spectrum analysis, and composite analysis, we quantitatively analyze rainfall evolution patterns for the annual period, main flood season, reservoir impoundment period, and key drawdown period within three major sub-regions: the Yalong River Basin, the lower Jinsha River, and the mainstream of the upper Changjiang River. The results indicated that the Yalong River Basin exhibited a significant increasing trend in annual and drawdown-period precipitation, while the lower Jinsha River and mainstream of the upper Changjiang River showed decreasing trends across all periods. Periodicity analysis revealed a 5-year cycle during the flood season and a 13-year cycle during the impoundment period in the Yalong River Basin. A 3-year cycle was identified during the impoundment period in the lower Jinsha River, and 3-year cycles were found during the flood and drawdown periods in the mainstream of the upper Changjiang River. Composite analysis of rainstorms revealed such a typical pattern: precipitation typically initiates as moderate rain in the northern Jialing and Minjiang basins on the first day, intensifies into heavy rain while shifting southeastward to the mainstream, then continues eastward on the following day, weakening to moderate rain in the Three Gorges area before finally exiting the region. These findings provide crucial support for coordinated flood control and drought relief operations of cascade reservoirs and for adaptation to climate change.

       

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