改进的综合气象干旱指数在新疆的适用性分析

    Applicability analysis on improved comprehensive meteorological drought index in Xinjiang

    • 摘要: 构建有效的干旱指数是识别、评价实际旱情的关键。以新疆为研究区域,基于降水、气温、土壤含水量数据,对已有的标准化综合气象干旱指数CI指数进行改进,使用逐日降水加权衰减对降雨量进行非等权处理,依据水平衡模型修正得到一种物理机制清晰、应用简便的综合气象干旱指数CIn,进一步评价了该指数在新疆地区的适用性,检验了该指数表征旱情时空演变全过程特征的能力,并对造成干旱指数变化的驱动因素进行了分析。结果表明:①新构建的CIn指数改善了CI指数对新疆气象旱情轻判的问题,所显示的干旱历时与干旱强度对干旱事件的评价更为准确,更加适用于新疆的气象干旱情况;②基于CIn指数计算得出不同时间尺度以及不同干旱等级的气象干旱频率,表征为春季>夏季>冬季>秋季,且“干旱—湿润”的变化情况占主导地位,干旱情况存在明显的空间异质性;③各气象驱动因子对干旱指数存在不同的空间相关性,CIn指数与降雨量、潜在蒸散发和相对湿度成正相关,与风速和平均温度成负相关。CIn指数不但克服了综合气象干旱指数出现的低估旱情等级问题,而且对旱情态势走向评价更加准确,可以为气象干旱的防治提供理论依据。

       

      Abstract: The construction of an effective drought index is the key to identifying and evaluate the actual drought conditions.Taking Xinjiang as the study area, based on the data of precipitation, air temperature and soil water content, we improved the existing standardized composite meteorological drought index (CI), used a day-by-day precipitation weighted attenuation method for rainfall processing, and developed a new comprehensive meteorological drought index (CIn index) with clear physical mechanisms and ease of application based on a water balance model.Furthermore, we evaluated the applicability of this index in Xinjiang, assessed its capability to characterize the entire drought evolution process, and analyzed the driving factors behind its variations.The results show that: ① The newly constructed CIn index solves the problem of the CI index's underestimation of meteorological drought in Xinjiang, and the CIn index evaluates drought events more accurately through drought duration and intensity, which is more suitable for meteorological drought conditions in Xinjiang.② The frequency of meteorological droughts across different time scales and drought levels based on the CIn index is characterized as spring>summer>winter>autumn, with "dry to wet" variations being dominant.Additionally, the drought conditions exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity.③ The CIn index is positively correlated with rainfall, the potential evapotranspiration and relative humidity, and negatively correlated with wind speed and average temperature.The CIn index not only overcomes the problem of underestimation of drought level that occurs in the comprehensive meteorological drought index, but also evaluates the drought trend more accurately, which can provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of meteorological drought.

       

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