长江经济带城市生态环境脆弱性及驱动因素研究

    Ecological environment vulnerability and driving factors of cities in Yangtze River Economic Belt

    • 摘要: 厘清生态环境脆弱性时空分异及驱动因素,对于生态环境精准治理具有重要意义。以长江经济带沿线40个城市为样本,利用2012~2022年的统计数据,基于“暴露度-敏感性-适应力”理论框架,设计长江经济带城市生态环境脆弱性描述指标,采用“逐层纵横向”拉开档次法测度长江经济带城市生态环境脆弱性,运用莫兰指数法、Kriging插值法和地理探测器分析脆弱性时空分异特征及驱动因素。研究表明:①样本城市生态环境脆弱性总体呈明显改善态势,轻度和中度脆弱性城市数占比由45%上升至70%左右;脆弱性高度和重度城市数占比由55%左右下降至30%左右;高度和重度脆弱性城市主要在长江上、下游地区的对应城市,但以下游城市为主,这些城市脆弱性状态较为稳定且未见明显改善。②长江经济带沿江城市的生态环境脆弱性呈空间相关性,表现在城市生态环境脆弱性呈现空间聚集现象,邻近城市生态环境脆弱性具一定相似性特点。③经济发展水平、城镇化水平和科学技术投入是驱动生态环境脆弱性时空演化格局的核心因子,并且城镇化水平对生态环境脆弱性的影响力有所增强。研究成果可为长江经济带城市生态环境保护和可持续发展政策设计提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Clarifying the spatial and temporal variability of ecological environment vulnerability and its driving factors is of great significance to the precise management of the ecological environment.Taking 40 cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt as samples, and utilizing the statistical data from 2012 to 2022, based on the theoretical framework of "Exposure-Sensitivity-Resilience", we designed indicators to describe the ecological environment vulnerability of the cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and adopted a method of "layer by layer" to measure the ecological environment vulnerability.The Moran index, Kriging interpolation, and geodetic detector were used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of the vulnerability and its driving factors.The study shows that: ① The overall environmental ecological vulnerability of the sample cities has improved significantly, with the proportion of cities with light and severe vulnerability jumping from 45% to about 70%, and the proportion of cities with high and heavy vulnerability decreasing from 55% to 30%.The cities with high and severe vulnerability are mainly in the upstream and downstream areas of the Yangtze River, but mainly in the downstream cities.The vulnerability status of these cities is relatively stable and has not shown significant improvement.② The ecological environment vulnerability of cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt is spatially correlated, which is manifested in a phenomenon of spatial aggregation of urban ecological environment vulnerability, and the ecological environment vulnerability of neighboring cities has a certain similarity.③ The level of economic development, urbanization, and scientific and technological inputs are the core factors driving the spatial and temporal evolution of the ecological environment vulnerability, and the influence of urbanization level on the vulnerability of the ecological environment has increased.The research results can provide a reference for the ecological environmental protection and sustainable development of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

       

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