Abstract: Under the context of global climate warming, extreme drought events pose serious threats to agricultural production, making research on the impact of droughts on agriculture highly significant for ensuring regional food security and water resource management. Taking Chongqing City as the study area, this research utilized meteorological department forecast data to establish water balance supply-demand relationship indicators, conducting drought assessment and prediction for the entire municipality′s agricultural water shortage and key crop water requirements. The results indicate that from late August to early September, some districts and counties are expected to experience periodic drought-related water shortages for sweet potatoes and vegetable cultivation, lasting approximately seven days. From November to December, with reducing rainfalls, the main urban areas and parts of northeastern Chongqing City may face relatively widespread water shortages for rapeseed cultivation, though the overall water shortage is expected to be limited, with minimal impact on rapeseed growth. Combined analysis of rainfall trends and water storage project operations suggests that a drought event of intensity comparable to that of 2022 is unlikely to occur in 2024. Verification shows that this prediction aligns with the actual drought conditions in 2024. The study provides scientific support for optimizing agricultural production layout, formulating drought response strategies, and coordinating water resource management in Chongqing City.