Abstract: In order to understand the changes in soil erosion and future development of the Anning River Basin, we completed the calculation and grading of the soil erosion modulus of the region from 1995 to 2018 by the revised soil erosion equation, and the temporal and spatial evolution and development of soil erosion in the region were analyzed by using transfer matrix, slope change and CA-Markov model.The results show that:(1) the proportion of grids in each erosion level from high to low were micro, slight, mild, strong, very strong and severe.The accumulative proportion of grids of below slight levels had reached more than 70% of the whole area, and the overall soil erosion of the basin was at a medium level.(2)The overall soil erosion of the basin presented a relatively severe distribution change in the west and south.(3) During the 23 years, the micro, slight and severe levels of erosion were stable, 83.58%,81.09% and 68.73% of areas were not changed respectively.Only the micro level was converted to a higher level, and the other levels were all converted to lower levels.(4) Slope change and significance test showed that 94.35% of the soil erosion in the whole area did not change significantly, and only 0.39% of the area was significantly worse.(6) Prediction results and accuracy tests showed that the CA-Markov model was suitable for the prediction of regional soil erosion development.In 2021,the overall soil erosion in the watershed showed a good development trend.The study can be used as a reference for comprehensive management of regional soil erosion.