Abstract:
To explore the evolution process and characteristics of ecological resettlement risks,and improve the scientific nature of management decision-making,a risk indicator system from the perspective of different stakeholders is established,including 4 primary indicators and 18 secondary indicators of social,ecological environmental,economic and resource system risks.Qualitative analysis is done on the causal evolution relationship between risk factors,and ANP method is adopted in quantifying the weight of risk indicators.The system dynamics (SD) evolution model of ecological resettlement risk is constructed,and the risk evolution simulation is carried out based on calculation examples.The results show that with the increase in safety management investment,the risk value shows an overall trend of initial sharp increase and then gradual decrease.The specific characteristics are as follows:the amount of risk gradually accumulates during the 1st to 3th years and the value of risk shows an upward trend.From the 4th to the 7th years,the value of risk gradually stabilizes.In the 6.5th year,the amount of risk reaches its peak.After the 7th year,the value of risk gradually decreases and remains in a controllable state.