生态移民安置风险演化系统动力学模型研究

    Research on system dynamics model of ecological resettlement risk evolution

    • 摘要: 为了深入探究生态移民安置风险的演化过程及其演化特征,提高管理决策的科学性,从不同利益相关者视角出发,建立包含社会、生态环境、经济和资源系统风险的4个一级指标及18项二级指标的风险指标体系;然后定性分析风险因素间的因果演化关系,采用ANP法量化风险指标权重;最后构造生态移民安置风险的系统动力学(SD)演化模型,并结合算例进行风险演化仿真模拟。结果表明,随着安全管理投入的增加,风险值呈现出先大幅上升后逐渐下降的总体趋势,具体特征表现为:第1~3年的风险量逐渐累积且风险值呈现上升趋势,第4~7年风险值逐渐平缓,第6.5年风险量到达峰值,第7年以后,风险值逐渐下降并处于可控状态。

       

      Abstract: To explore the evolution process and characteristics of ecological resettlement risks,and improve the scientific nature of management decision-making,a risk indicator system from the perspective of different stakeholders is established,including 4 primary indicators and 18 secondary indicators of social,ecological environmental,economic and resource system risks.Qualitative analysis is done on the causal evolution relationship between risk factors,and ANP method is adopted in quantifying the weight of risk indicators.The system dynamics (SD) evolution model of ecological resettlement risk is constructed,and the risk evolution simulation is carried out based on calculation examples.The results show that with the increase in safety management investment,the risk value shows an overall trend of initial sharp increase and then gradual decrease.The specific characteristics are as follows:the amount of risk gradually accumulates during the 1st to 3th years and the value of risk shows an upward trend.From the 4th to the 7th years,the value of risk gradually stabilizes.In the 6.5th year,the amount of risk reaches its peak.After the 7th year,the value of risk gradually decreases and remains in a controllable state.

       

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