智慧流域水文预报技术研究进展与开发前景

    Research progress and development prospect of hydrological forecasting technology in smart watersheds

    • 摘要: 当前处于传统水利快速迈向智慧水利的高质量发展新阶段,开展智慧流域水文模拟和洪水预报系统研发,是建设数字孪生流域的重要组成部分,是强化“四预”措施和推进智慧水利建设的必然要求。综述了流域水文模拟预报研究进展,剖析中国洪水预报业务现状和不足,从数据底板、规律机理、预报模型、方法技术和业务平台等方面对水文预报技术进行了探讨展望。研究结果表明,智慧流域水文预报的关键技术与发展前景为:(1)多源异构数据汇集,夯实流域数据底板;(2)加强河库系统水汽循环研究,揭示成因机理;(3)聚焦强人类活动影响特征,升级专业模型;(4)深化预报新技术研究,探索基于智能预报调度一体化业务体系;(5)打造通用化业务化平台,支撑多要素全周期“四预”功能。研究成果可为提高流域洪水预报水平,强化“四预”措施,建成数字孪生流域提供理论基础和技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: At present, traditional water conservancy is rapidly entering a new stage of high-quality development for intelligent water conservancy.It is an important component of building a digital twin watershed to develop an intelligent watershed hydrological simulation and flood forecasting system.It is also an inevitable requirement for strengthening the "four precautions"(forecasting, alarming, preview and plan) and promoting the construction of intelligent water conservancy.The research progress of hydrological simulation forecasting is reviewed, and the current situation and shortcomings of the application of flood forecasting systems in China are analyzed.Meanwhile, we discuss the key technologies and development prospect of intelligent basin hydrological simulation and flood forecasting system from the aspects of database, regular mechanism, forecast model, methodology and technology, and application platform, including: pooling multi-source heterogeneous data and consolidating basin database; strengthening the water vapor cycle study of river reservoir system and revealing the cause mechanism; focusing on characteristics of strong human activities and upgrading professional models; deepening the research of new forecasting technology and exploring the integrated business system based on intelligent forecasting and dispatching; building a general business platform to support the multi-factor full cycle "four precautions" function.The research results can provide a theoretical basis and technical support for improving the flood forecasting level in river basins, strengthening the "four precautions",and constructing digital dual river basin.

       

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