缺资料地区小型水库纳雨能力计算模型构建及应用

    Construction and application of rainfall retaining capacity calculation model of small reservoirs in ungauged region

    • 摘要: 针对缺资料地区小型水库预警难题,构建了考虑不同小水库运行方式的纳雨能力计算模型,并提出适用于缺资料地区的模型参数方案,开发考虑未来降雨的纳雨能力迭代试算方法。以2023年8月21日为起始时刻,计算湖南省缺资料地区32座试点小型水库的纳雨能力,并以和平水库为例开展纳雨能力滚动计算。结果表明:计算得到的试点小型水库防洪风险与降雨分布合理相关,能够直观展现降雨主落区内的高风险水库分布,实现了库水位和前期降雨对于纳雨能力影响的合理量化,并且能够实时反映不同时期影响纳雨能力的主要因素的动态变化。

       

      Abstract: To realize the flood risk warning of small reservoirs in ungauged regions, a rainfall retaining capacity calculation model considering different operation modes of small reservoirs and the model parameter schemes have been developed in this study.An iterative trial solution method considering potential rainfall for the constructed model has been proposed for efficient computation.The rainfall retaining capacity of32pilot small reservoirs located in the ungauged region of Hu′nan Province was calculated starting from August21,2023.In addition, a continuous calculation was carried out from August1to September30,2023,using the proposed method for Heping Reservoir.The results show that the flood risk of the pilot small reservoirs calculated is reasonably related to the rainfall distribution, supporting flood risk visualization for small reservoirs within the rain-affected region.Furthermore, the impact of reservoir water level and antecedent precipitation on rainfall retaining capacity can also be dynamically quantified in real-time, which provides a reference for the continuous monitoring of flood risks of small reservoirs.

       

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