Study on meteorological drought prediction in Yunnan Province based on ARIMA

doi:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2015.15.002

et alStudy on meteorological drought prediction in Yunnan Province based on ARIMAJ. Yangtze River, 2015, 46(15): 6-9. DOI: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2015.15.002

Citation:

et alStudy on meteorological drought prediction in Yunnan Province based on ARIMAJ. Yangtze River, 2015, 46(15): 6-9. DOI: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2015.15.002

Citation:

et alStudy on meteorological drought prediction in Yunnan Province based on ARIMAJ. Yangtze River, 2015, 46(15): 6-9. DOI: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2015.15.002

Study on meteorological drought prediction in Yunnan Province based on ARIMA

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The drought of Yunnan Province has caused wide public concern in recent years. To predict the drought of Yunnan Province in future period, the time series of monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature from 29 metrological stations in Yunnan Province during 1961 to 2013 were used to calculate the SPEI, and ARIMA models was built based on the SPEI. After calibration and validation, the model parameter and expression were determined. Then the annual SPEI from 2014 to 2023 in different regions of Yunnan Province were predicted by the model. The result showed that the meteorological drought will be continued in the future period, some countermeasures and suggestions for drought resistance are put forward.

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Study on meteorological drought prediction in Yunnan Province based on ARIMA

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