Risk assessment of technical cooperation innovation project based on Bayesian network

To improve the risk management level of important projects, the Bayesian network technology is introduced into the risk assessment of cooperation innovation works of foundation grouting technology in important hydropower projects. In the assessment, firstly, the expert knowledge was made full use of, so as to deduce and assess the risk; then the prior information was modified by posterior probability distribution from the sampling data, and the risk of foundation grouting technology cooperation innovation works of important hydropower project can be evaluated and forecasted dynamically and accurately. Combining with an engineering example, the occurrence probabilities of cooperative technology innovation under different risks were predicted, and the most likely risk factors were also diagnosed and inferred. The research results can provide a new way for dynamic evaluation of important engineering project risk.