Comprehensive risk assessment of agricultural drought in Liaoning Province based on multi-source data

As climate change intensifies, drought is expected to become an increasingly serious challenge in the future. Developing a reliable assessment model for drought risk and mapping its spatial distribution are therefore crucial for sustaining agricultural production. Based on multi-source satellite remote sensing data and socioeconomic statistics from 2001 to 2020, this study established a drought risk assessment framework for agriculture in Liaoning Province from four dimensions: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation. An objective combination weighting method and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation approach were applied to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural drought risk across the province. The results show that: ① The drought assessment results derived from the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation were highly consistent with those identified by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 73.84%, indicating strong predictive performance. ② The northwestern region of Liaoning Province exhibited higher levels of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, while the central region showed relatively low vulnerability. ③ The comprehensive fuzzy evaluation indicated that high drought risk areas covered 42.78% of the total area within the province. Among them, the northwestern region, which functions as the main grain-producing area, accounted for 80.95% of the total high-risk area and should be prioritized for drought mitigation. In contrast, the central and eastern regions faced relatively low drought risk. These findings provide a scientific basis for developing targeted drought prevention and mitigation measures to support agricultural resilience in Liaoning Province.