Research on resilience of virtual water trade networks of agricultural products along "Belt and Road"

The "Belt and Road" region serves as a vital global agricultural production base. Examining the resilience of virtual water trade networks of agricultural products holds important strategic significance for ensuring regional water resource security and sustainable food development. Based on agricultural products trade data from 65 nations along the "Belt and Road" from 2013 to 2022, this paper delineates the spatiotemporal patterns of the trade network through virtual water quantification and complex network analysis, and evaluates the dynamic evolution of network resilience from the dimensions of both structural and nodal resilience. The study reveals that: ① The virtual water trade network of agricultural products along the "Belt and Road" has undergone an evolutionary trajectory from polycentricity to hierarchical convergence, followed by distributed restructuring. The trade flows demonstrate diversified import patterns and concentrated export characteristics. ② The network structure exhibits the characteristics of a resilient network with high hierarchy and disassortativity. The resilience levels show a fluctuating trend of initial increase followed by decline, demonstrating an overall deteriorating trend throughout the decade. ③ Seven dominant nodes and three vulnerable nodes are identified within the study area. Among the dominant nodes, China, Turkey, Egypt and Poland primarily function as importers, while Russia, India and Ukraine serve as major exporters. The findings provide references for optimizing water resource allocation of the countries along the route.