Evolution, coupling, and driving of virtual water-energy-carbon in Guangdong Province from a supply-demand perspective

The synergistic management of water, energy, and carbon (W-E-C) is a critical challenge for regional sustainable development, necessitating a systematic analytical framework to reveal their complex evolution, coupling, and driving mechanisms. Taking Guangdong Province-a typical epitome of China′s rapid economic growth and transformation-as a case study, this research constructed an analytical framework integrating both supply-side and demand-side perspectives. Based on Guangdong′s input-output tables and resource-environmental data from 1997 to 2017, this study comprehensively employed environmental input-output analysis, Spearman′s rank correlation analysis, and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition to systematically investigate the long-term evolution, coupling relationships, and overall and multi-stage driving effects of the virtual W-E-C nexus. The findings reveal that: ① Virtual water consumption achieved absolute decoupling from economic growth, while virtual energy consumption and virtual carbon emissions remained in relative decoupling. ② The demand structure shifted towards interprovincial transfers as the dominant component, significantly exacerbating virtual energy and carbon pressures. ③ Virtual energy and carbon exhibited high synergy, whereas virtual water showed weaker linkages with both virtual energy and virtual carbon, demonstrating significant sectoral and demand heterogeneity. ④ Decomposition analysis revealed that improvements in industrial efficiency were the key factor slowing the growth of the total virtual W-E-C, while economic scale expansion was the primary driver. In the later stages, industrial structure optimization yielded energy-saving and emission-reduction benefits, which were partially offset by demand structure transformation. The systematic analytical framework and findings not only provide references for the collaborative management of resources and environment in Guangdong, but also offer insights for other industrialized and transitioning regions facing similar challenges, such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.