Study on slope stability in the Zigui syncline region of the Three Gorges Reservoir based on r.slope.stability

The Zigui syncline area at the head of the Three Gorges Reservoir is prone to geological disasters. Despite receiving high attention and effective prevention measures, sudden new disasters still occur from time to time. Conducting regional slope stability analysis can provide important support for the early identification of geological disaster risks and risk control. Compared with statistical analysis methods, analysis methods based on physical and mechanical mechanisms are increasingly valued due to their stronger explanatory power. Among the current mainstream analysis models and methods, r.slope.stability (RSS) has been widely applied in recent years because it can support both infinite slope models and circular arc models for regional stability analysis and also enables failure probability analysis. This paper conducts slope stability and failure probability analysis in the Zigui syncline basin area of the Three Gorges Reservoir using RSS, and on this basis, achieves a comprehensive evaluation of regional slope hazards. The results show that the prediction accuracy of slope stability and failure probability in the area can reach 73.7% and 81.4% respectively, and the accuracy of hazard evaluation combining stability and failure probability can reach 83.2%, which is higher than the accuracy of traditional statistical methods. This indicates that the RSS analysis method has good applicability and is of significant reference value for slope stability assessment in the Three Gorges Reservoir area and the early identification of geological disaster risks.