Research on low-carbon power planning model based on reliable power balance

In the process of power source planning, to address the difficulty in maintaining the power balance of the system caused by the large-scale and uncertain access of new energy sources, this paper proposes a regional low-carbon power source planning model considering reliable output. The model aims to minimize the comprehensive cost during the planning period, quantifies the reliable output of each power source during peak load periods, and constructs a regional low-carbon power source planning model nested with power balance calculation based on reliable output. To solve the problem of unreasonable planning results caused by referring to the actual output of wind and solar power in adjacent regions when planning regional power sources, an output correction method is proposed to determine the reliable working capacity of new energy sources. A verification scheme is set up to analyze the guaranteeing role of reliable working capacity in system power balance and explore the capacity value of energy storage in optimizing the power source structure. The research shows that this model takes into account both economy and low-carbon reliability, can significantly reduce carbon emissions and maintain low costs, and optimizing the power source structure can improve the system's economy. At the same time, traditional planning methods have problems such as a sharp increase in the demand for thermal power installations, idle and wasted resources, and overestimation of the reliable output of wind and solar power. However, this model can effectively solve these problems and provide new ideas for the low-carbon transformation of the energy structure.