Spatio-temporal analysis of Urban Waterlogging Disaster Bearing Capacity Based on the “load-carrier”framework

Effectively identifying the carrying capacity of urban waterlogging disasters is the basis of urban disaster management. First, a “Load-Carrier” paradigm evaluation index system for urban waterlogging disaster carrying capacity was constructed. Subsequently, an integrated Bayesian BWM-CRITIC comprehensive assessment model was developed. Finally, spatiotemporal characteristics of urban waterlogging disaster carrying capacity were analyzed using the Fen River Basin as a case study. The results indicate that: (1) In the load subsystem, the average water depth has the greatest influence on the bearing capacity load of urban waterlogging disasters. In the carrier subsystem, the coverage of hospitals has the greatest impact on the carrier carrying capacity of urban waterlogging disasters. (2) Facing the three rainfall events, the load values in Taiyuan city were significantly higher than those in other areas, and the load value in Jinzhong city was at the lowest level in the basin. From the perspective of the carrier value results, Taiyuan city ranks at the highest level in the basin, while Jinzhong and Luliang cities remain at a relatively low level in the basin. (3) All six cities in the Fen River Basin demonstrated sufficient capacity to handle 10-year rainfall events. However, when facing 50-year and 100-year rainfall events, Jinzhong, Linfen, Lüliang, Xinzhou and Yuncheng cities maintained effective response capabilities, while Taiyuan City remained vulnerable to urban waterlogging disasters. Under the three rainfall scenarios (10-year, 50-year and 100-year recurrence intervals), the urban waterlogging carrying capacity in the southwestern part of Fen River Basin was consistently higher than that in the northeastern region. A scientific assessment of urban waterlogging resilience capacity holds critical significance for ensuring regional economic stability and fostering sustainable socio-economic development.